Lululemon risks following Nike's path of margin collapse from peak valuation. Lululemon peaked at 14x EV/sales and 82x forward earnings in 2020, while Nike's EBITDA margin has collapsed from 18% in 2021 to 10.7% today. x.com 

Nike is not deep value: it still trades at about 26 times, against roughly 9.4 times for Lululemon, and the consumer is not looking healthy heading into the second half of 2026. x.com 

Lululemon offers better risk/reward than Nike if it is not broken, trading below 5x EV/EBITDA versus Nike's 14x. Nike's turnaround through wholesale is very hard for a $50B revenue business facing strong rival brands, less product control, price competition and channel conflict across multiple product lines. Nike may have a better near-term chance of beating estimates and is a more evergreen brand, but Lululemon looks increasingly preferable. x.com  x.com 

Lululemon's weakness is structural, and consumers may also be tightening budgets for aspirational purchases across apparel. The same slowing-sales trend showed up at other brands this quarter, and heavy wholesale promotions were flagged on the On and Amer Sports calls, making apparel a tough industry to invest in. x.com 

Lululemon's core categories such as leggings fell 20%, and it is unclear whether that reflects a fashion shift toward baggy workout clothes or consumers buying better-value leggings elsewhere. With On and Deckers also sharply down, some broader consumer weakness looks likely. x.com  x.com 

Lululemon's 18% premarket drop looks like an overreaction given its improving margins. x.com 

Lululemon is probably going lower because sales and margins are imploding while inventory grows, and a new unproven CEO is coming in. Q3 guidance calls for revenue down 10-11%, North America down mid-teens and inventory up low single digits; full-year revenue should fall 5-7% with inventory up mid single digits. Even granting $6 of annualized EPS versus a ~$4 run rate, 12x for an off-trend retailer implies about $70, versus $100 after an 18% drop. x.com  x.com 

Lululemon is no bargain at $99 and an 8x P/E, with revenue shrinking 4% and guidance slashed in two consecutive quarters. x.com 

Nike's brand concerns look priced in; stabilization, not sudden revenue acceleration, is what the speculative long needs. A few good campaigns and a return to large stores could help, though China consumers will be a drag. Short-term EPS is a poor indicator, and customers may return after trying other brands. x.com  x.com 

On Holding holds zero interest now that its growth has slowed too much and all the founders have left. It would still be preferable to Nike or Lululemon, but retail and apparel are best avoided altogether. x.com  x.com