The Long Investor
Airline Captain & Investment Analyst, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
Lululemon's debt-free balance sheet leaves room for a reversal: at these levels it should borrow to buy back shares, and that one decision would spark an upside breakout. At about $115, the stock sits in a very tight descending wedge after falling another 50% when support at the 0.618 Fibonacci level failed, and a return to the 200-week moving average would mean a gain of nearly 200%. That makes the risk-reward very attractive. Michael Burry was early, with an estimated average cost near $238. x.comÂ
Lululemon is an 800lb gorilla worth defending despite bad management and the politics around its skin-tight leggings. x.comÂ
lululemon looks cheap at about 5x cash earnings, versus the 12x retailers usually get. Fair value sits at $221.42-$281.80, or 12x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, leaving the $101.30 stock 54% below the low end. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Lululemon's 20% drop does not make it a buy, because its brand is losing ground in its biggest markets and guidance collapsed. Q2 EPS beat on margins, but constant-currency comps fell 10%, with the first declines on record in China and Rest of World, after brand damage from the proxy fight, a Texas PFAS probe and a yoga event backlash. Management cut fiscal 2026 EPS to $9.48-9.73 on sales down 5-7%, and guided Q3 EPS to $0.93-0.98, about 60% below the Street's $2.37. x.comÂ
Lululemon is cheap at around 11x earnings with gross margins above 50%, while many people, including the founder, are pushing for a turnaround. Sales growth is tiny, but the balance sheet is solid and the company makes an interesting acquisition target. The reported collapse of talks with founder Chip Wilson, per WSJ via @DeItaone, looks good for the stock: Wilson may try to take it private or bring in a strategic buyer. x.com x.comÂ
Nike is not deep value: it still trades at about 26 times, against roughly 9.4 times for Lululemon, and the consumer is not looking healthy heading into the second half of 2026. x.comÂ
Lululemon is probably going lower because sales and margins are imploding while inventory grows, and a new unproven CEO is coming in. Q3 guidance calls for revenue down 10-11%, North America down mid-teens and inventory up low single digits; full-year revenue should fall 5-7% with inventory up mid single digits. Even granting $6 of annualized EPS versus a ~$4 run rate, 12x for an off-trend retailer implies about $70, versus $100 after an 18% drop. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon trading at about 7x earnings is absurdly cheap, among the most mispriced stocks around. x.comÂ
Lululemon offers better risk/reward than Nike if it is not broken, trading below 5x EV/EBITDA versus Nike's 14x. Nike's turnaround through wholesale is very hard for a $50B revenue business facing strong rival brands, less product control, price competition and channel conflict across multiple product lines. Nike may have a better near-term chance of beating estimates and is a more evergreen brand, but Lululemon looks increasingly preferable. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon's business has not found its bottom, even after the stock fell nearly 18% after earnings to around $100. Revenue fell 4% to $2.42B, global comparable sales dropped 9% and Americas comps fell 12%. The bigger issue is the outlook, with FY26 revenue now expected to decline 5-7% and EPS guidance cut to $9.48-$9.73. x.comÂ
Lululemon's sell-off may be overdone, with the stock at about 1x EV/sales, below its 2009 financial crisis lows. It was absurdly overvalued during the Covid consumption binge, but this multiple looks too punitive for an athleisure brand. x.comÂ