Stanphyl Capital
Managing Member & Portfolio Manager at Stanphyl Capital, Value Investor
Lululemon is cheap at around 11x earnings with gross margins above 50%, while many people, including the founder, are pushing for a turnaround. Sales growth is tiny, but the balance sheet is solid and the company makes an interesting acquisition target. The reported collapse of talks with founder Chip Wilson, per WSJ via @DeItaone, looks good for the stock: Wilson may try to take it private or bring in a strategic buyer. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon is an 800lb gorilla worth defending despite bad management and the politics around its skin-tight leggings. x.comÂ
Lululemon trading at about 7x earnings is absurdly cheap, among the most mispriced stocks around. x.comÂ
Lululemon faces a new potential overhang while its business is already losing ground to Alo and Vuori. Founder Chip Wilson, who owns about 8.6% of the company, is reportedly divorcing with no prenup, per Unusual Whales citing the New York Post. That does not guarantee he sells shares, but it puts a nearly $1 billion stake in play. With the business under pressure, more downside before a turnaround begins would be no surprise. x.comÂ
Lululemon's 18% premarket drop looks like an overreaction given its improving margins. x.comÂ
Lululemon offers better risk/reward than Nike if it is not broken, trading below 5x EV/EBITDA versus Nike's 14x. Nike's turnaround through wholesale is very hard for a $50B revenue business facing strong rival brands, less product control, price competition and channel conflict across multiple product lines. Nike may have a better near-term chance of beating estimates and is a more evergreen brand, but Lululemon looks increasingly preferable. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon is not worth bottom-fishing even though the bad news will eventually be priced in, because forward estimates keep falling and a bottom is hard to time before fundamentals bottom. The business is not a zero: its stores are still busy, if less than before. There are better places to look for a bargain. x.com x.com x.comÂ
lululemon looks cheap at about 5x cash earnings, versus the 12x retailers usually get. Fair value sits at $221.42-$281.80, or 12x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, leaving the $101.30 stock 54% below the low end. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Lululemon's sell-off may be overdone, with the stock at about 1x EV/sales, below its 2009 financial crisis lows. It was absurdly overvalued during the Covid consumption binge, but this multiple looks too punitive for an athleisure brand. x.comÂ
Lululemon is probably going lower because sales and margins are imploding while inventory grows, and a new unproven CEO is coming in. Q3 guidance calls for revenue down 10-11%, North America down mid-teens and inventory up low single digits; full-year revenue should fall 5-7% with inventory up mid single digits. Even granting $6 of annualized EPS versus a ~$4 run rate, 12x for an off-trend retailer implies about $70, versus $100 after an 18% drop. x.com x.comÂ
Nike is not deep value: it still trades at about 26 times, against roughly 9.4 times for Lululemon, and the consumer is not looking healthy heading into the second half of 2026. x.comÂ
