Lululemon trading at about 7x earnings is absurdly cheap, among the most mispriced stocks around. x.comÂ
Roger
Business Owner, Former Assistant Research Professor
lululemon looks cheap at about 5x cash earnings, versus the 12x retailers usually get. Fair value sits at $221.42-$281.80, or 12x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, leaving the $101.30 stock 54% below the low end. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Lululemon is an 800lb gorilla worth defending despite bad management and the politics around its skin-tight leggings. x.comÂ
Lululemon is no bargain at $99 and an 8x P/E, with revenue shrinking 4% and guidance slashed in two consecutive quarters. x.comÂ
Lululemon's sell-off may be overdone, with the stock at about 1x EV/sales, below its 2009 financial crisis lows. It was absurdly overvalued during the Covid consumption binge, but this multiple looks too punitive for an athleisure brand. x.comÂ
Lululemon is cheap at around 11x earnings with gross margins above 50%, while many people, including the founder, are pushing for a turnaround. Sales growth is tiny, but the balance sheet is solid and the company makes an interesting acquisition target. The reported collapse of talks with founder Chip Wilson, per WSJ via @DeItaone, looks good for the stock: Wilson may try to take it private or bring in a strategic buyer. x.com x.comÂ
lululemon's 9.4 times forward earnings looks like a value trap, because US brand fatigue may be structural rather than cyclical. A 44% drop this year and a low multiple invite bets on mean reversion that may not come. x.comÂ
Nike is not deep value: it still trades at about 26 times, against roughly 9.4 times for Lululemon, and the consumer is not looking healthy heading into the second half of 2026. x.comÂ
Lululemon offers better risk/reward than Nike if it is not broken, trading below 5x EV/EBITDA versus Nike's 14x. Nike's turnaround through wholesale is very hard for a $50B revenue business facing strong rival brands, less product control, price competition and channel conflict across multiple product lines. Nike may have a better near-term chance of beating estimates and is a more evergreen brand, but Lululemon looks increasingly preferable. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon is not that tempting even after falling from $500 to about $100, because cheap does not mean buy. At about 1x sales the market prices in roughly zero growth, and analysts expect about $13 of EPS by 2029; at an 8x P/E that is only about $104. Agreeing with @HKIStrategies that the stock may simply move sideways for years, that would still mean losing money to inflation. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon's 18% premarket drop looks like an overreaction given its improving margins. x.comÂ