Lululemon is an 800lb gorilla worth defending despite bad management and the politics around its skin-tight leggings. x.comÂ
Michael Burry
Author of Cassandra Unchained, Former Hedge Fund Manager at Scion Asset Management
Lululemon is cheap at around 11x earnings with gross margins above 50%, while many people, including the founder, are pushing for a turnaround. Sales growth is tiny, but the balance sheet is solid and the company makes an interesting acquisition target. The reported collapse of talks with founder Chip Wilson, per WSJ via @DeItaone, looks good for the stock: Wilson may try to take it private or bring in a strategic buyer. x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon's 18% premarket drop looks like an overreaction given its improving margins. x.comÂ
Lululemon is not worth bottom-fishing even though the bad news will eventually be priced in, because forward estimates keep falling and a bottom is hard to time before fundamentals bottom. The business is not a zero: its stores are still busy, if less than before. There are better places to look for a bargain. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Lululemon trading at about 7x earnings is absurdly cheap, among the most mispriced stocks around. x.comÂ
Lululemon's sell-off may be overdone, with the stock at about 1x EV/sales, below its 2009 financial crisis lows. It was absurdly overvalued during the Covid consumption binge, but this multiple looks too punitive for an athleisure brand. x.comÂ
Lululemon is a value trap with no sign its business decline is reversing. Comparable sales in the Americas fell 10% in Q2 2026, worse than Nike's, and management now expects full-year revenue to fall 5-7%, with consensus estimates likely to be cut. Earnings are projected to drop to $1.3 billion by 2028, about 30% below 2025. The trailing P/E of 9x looks cheap, but the forward P/E is higher at 11x as earnings fall, despite the stock losing 75% of its peak value. x.comÂ
Lululemon offers better risk/reward than Nike if it is not broken, trading below 5x EV/EBITDA versus Nike's 14x. Nike's turnaround through wholesale is very hard for a $50B revenue business facing strong rival brands, less product control, price competition and channel conflict across multiple product lines. Nike may have a better near-term chance of beating estimates and is a more evergreen brand, but Lululemon looks increasingly preferable. x.com x.comÂ
lululemon looks cheap at about 5x cash earnings, versus the 12x retailers usually get. Fair value sits at $221.42-$281.80, or 12x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, leaving the $101.30 stock 54% below the low end. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Lululemon's demand keeps deteriorating, and takeover hopes are a risky reason to hold it. It cut full-year guidance again, with Q2 revenue down 4%, Americas sales down 8% and comparable sales down 9%, sending shares below $100 for the first time since 2019. Michael Burry calls it his largest position and sees a possible private equity takeover, but a Stage 4 decline can last longer than expected, as PayPal holders learned when Stripe chose not to bid. x.com x.comÂ
Nike is not deep value: it still trades at about 26 times, against roughly 9.4 times for Lululemon, and the consumer is not looking healthy heading into the second half of 2026. x.comÂ