Greg
Public Equities Commentary
Cogent Communications has a liquidity problem, not a solvency problem, making it a well-skewed bet but not a slam dunk. If it terms out its 2027 debt and reaches breakeven, its unique ex-Sprint fiber assets, worth about $3B+ to a buyer against $1.8B of debt, leave real equity value. The business grows 8% on a three-year stack and wavelengths over 60%. Rising 10-year yields and slow data-center ramps hurt, but at 85% debt to capital, any positive is a coiled spring. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Coherent has the most substance in the optical group and the only real base on its chart, while the sector's sell-off is macro, not fundamental. At about 23x 2027 estimates it looks mispriced, and it is the only company holding 6-inch InP, silicon photonics, OCS and CPO engines at once. It alone has stopped making lows. Rate-hike pricing and a 5.04% 10-year are still compressing optical multiples, so staged, defined-risk entries beat full commitments; a daily close below 264 invalidates it. … Show more
Dycom's record backlog keeps lengthening, so the market is repricing duration rather than demand. Its full-year revenue outlook rose only $55M: Building Systems up $215M, while the fiber-driven Communications business fell $160M as about $150M of wireless revenue slipped into fiscal 2028, and Communications margin fell 134bps to 13.6%. Backlog due within 12 months fell to 53% from 58%. If it stays near $6.5B, the book is 2029 revenue bought at 2027 prices; a jump past $7B would change the view. … Show more
