Coherent's 6-inch substrate access, yields and margin concerns look mostly like timing issues in the optical buildout. Coherent is now one of the preferred ways to gain exposure and should participate meaningfully, despite those constraints. x.com 

Coherent is set up for a strong 2026 as better manufacturing yields and a new product ramp arrive alongside solid guidance. The company says 6-inch production yields more than 3-inch, and its CPO/NPO ramp starts this year. Good Q4 guidance implies a P/E below 50 for 2027. The broader optics and photonics group, including Lumentum and Applied Optoelectronics, looks super bullish. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics has a better chance than Coherent of delivering a 300-400 mW laser with tolerable RIN and linewidth. Its transceiver capacity ramp is also larger and is not gated by Sumitomo's 6-inch InP wafers. Long AAOI against short COHR is an unnecessarily dangerous pair trade idea. x.com 

Indium phosphide laser capacity, not demand, now caps how fast 1.6T optics ship, and Coherent owns its laser fabs and grows its own substrate. That makes the InP squeeze Goldman flags through 2027 work in its favor. Record Q4 revenue of $2.05 billion rose 34% as six-inch InP wafers ramped, with 40.2% non-GAAP gross margin and 42%+ guided, at a 0.92 PEG. The risk: with about $3.55 billion of debt and cash burn, it can't absorb a 1.6T ramp slip; six-inch yield at volume is the test. x.com 

Coherent is becoming the gatekeeper of AI photonics as networking hardware grows as critical and scarce as GPUs. It is the only player to move to 6-inch InP wafers, more than doubling chips per wafer and giving it a cost edge over rivals that buy laser chips, with EML and CW laser capacity set to double in 2026 and again in 2027. Its liquid-cooled XPO optics cut TCO by 20-30%, and its briefing raised its 2030 addressable market to $70B+, including $15B+ for CPO/NPO. x.com 

Coherent and Lumentum are ultra overvalued, so when their monthly top comes in, they should fall about four times faster than they rose. Coherent may have already topped. x.com 

Coherent is a tactical buy because growth and margins should accelerate once its 6-inch production ramps, yield challenges notwithstanding. The quarter disappointed on a slower 2x InP ramp and slow margin progress toward 42%, with Coherent still reliant on Lumentum's lasers. Over the next 4-8 quarters it can catch up in simpler CW lasers, with OCS and CPO the real upside. Lumentum, growing about 90% versus Coherent's 20%, remains the preferred concentrated long-term AI-optics bet. x.com 

Coherent has a dated revenue catalyst: its PhotonLink is expected to start ramping in Q4 2026, with anchor customers secured for CPO and NPO. The median analyst target is $420. x.com  x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum and Coherent face share losses at US hyperscalers to Innolight. Channel checks favor Innolight gaining share in Q2 2026, at the expense of those three. Per @poezhao0605, a $7B Hong Kong IPO, the largest in years and upsized from $5B on strong demand, has cleared its listing hearing. x.com 

Coherent is more exciting than Lumentum at current multiples despite slower growth, because capacity, margin and segment catalysts are lining up. Its 6-inch indium phosphide capacity will soon double with a new Zurich site and is more cost-effective, lifting margins; OCS revenue picks up, and management expects datacom growth to accelerate in FY27. Communications grew 60% on scale-across. FY27 could bring 30–33% growth and EPS near $9.9; at about 33x FY27 earnings, below $300 is a better entry. … Show more