AI bandwidth demand still favors Coherent and Lumentum, but tight customer financing can delay orders and lasting valuations need durable profits. A model provider losing share need not reduce total bandwidth use. Coherent could beat and raise guidance; Lumentum may only meet estimates this quarter, improving next quarter. If margins partly reflect scarce indium phosphide, added supply will test whether upgrades, volume and cost gains sustain earnings. These earnings calls remain forecasts. … Show more

Coherent is a tactical buy because growth and margins should accelerate once its 6-inch production ramps, yield challenges notwithstanding. The quarter disappointed on a slower 2x InP ramp and slow margin progress toward 42%, with Coherent still reliant on Lumentum's lasers. Over the next 4-8 quarters it can catch up in simpler CW lasers, with OCS and CPO the real upside. Lumentum, growing about 90% versus Coherent's 20%, remains the preferred concentrated long-term AI-optics bet. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics has a better chance than Coherent of delivering a 300-400 mW laser with tolerable RIN and linewidth. Its transceiver capacity ramp is also larger and is not gated by Sumitomo's 6-inch InP wafers. Long AAOI against short COHR is an unnecessarily dangerous pair trade idea. x.com 

Lumentum's indium phosphide capacity makes it perhaps the best way to own the scarcity of optics. Per Bloomberg, Lumentum expects to sell out its 2028 capacity within two quarters, backed by a newly acquired InP device plant. Nvidia invested because larger clusters raise optical interconnect costs and bottlenecks. Billions in hyperscaler OCS deals should lift OCS above a $1B run rate in 2027, and its high-power CW light sources double per-device value in CPO. Growth is the cure for its 27x P/E. … Show more

Coherent's 6-inch substrate access, yields and margin concerns look mostly like timing issues in the optical buildout. Coherent is now one of the preferred ways to gain exposure and should participate meaningfully, despite those constraints. x.com 

VCSEL scale-up optics may spread revenue across more suppliers because they lack the fundamental bottlenecks of InP lasers. Coherent looks well positioned, but the VCSEL opportunity may still be shared more widely; Lumentum is also betting on VCSELs for scale-up. x.com 

Coherent is set up for a strong 2026 as better manufacturing yields and a new product ramp arrive alongside solid guidance. The company says 6-inch production yields more than 3-inch, and its CPO/NPO ramp starts this year. Good Q4 guidance implies a P/E below 50 for 2027. The broader optics and photonics group, including Lumentum and Applied Optoelectronics, looks super bullish. x.com 

Coherent has the most substance in the optical group and the only real base on its chart, while the sector's sell-off is macro, not fundamental. At about 23x 2027 estimates it looks mispriced, and it is the only company holding 6-inch InP, silicon photonics, OCS and CPO engines at once. It alone has stopped making lows. Rate-hike pricing and a 5.04% 10-year are still compressing optical multiples, so staged, defined-risk entries beat full commitments; a daily close below 264 invalidates it. … Show more

Applied Optoelectronics, Lumentum and Coherent face share losses at US hyperscalers to Innolight. Channel checks favor Innolight gaining share in Q2 2026, at the expense of those three. Per @poezhao0605, a $7B Hong Kong IPO, the largest in years and upsized from $5B on strong demand, has cleared its listing hearing. x.com 

Coherent has a dated revenue catalyst: its PhotonLink is expected to start ramping in Q4 2026, with anchor customers secured for CPO and NPO. The median analyst target is $420. x.com  x.com