Gregory Bent
CFA, Equity Analyst, US & Canadian Markets, 30+ Years of Experience
Viavi Solutions can reach $90-$100 by 2028 as earnings scale and it keeps its rerating as an AI hardware enabler. It once traded at 13-16x forward earnings as slow-growth telecom instrumentation, but now trades near 38x 2027 estimates. Consensus non-GAAP EPS rises from about $0.94 in FY2026 to $1.83 by FY2028, and a bull case with stronger Spirent synergies reaches $2.25-$2.50. As a premier testing bottleneck for 1.6T and 3.2T optical deployments, it can sustain a 38-40x multiple. x.com
Viavi's equity raise is a net win because a minor 5% dilution wipes out a $450 million loan while the stock trades near its highs. It swaps expensive, high-risk leverage for permanent equity just as its data center testing business hits an operational sweet spot, making its financial profile much more robust for the next three to five years. x.com
Viavi's AI data-center testing business is running ahead of plan. Q4 revenue of $443.1M and a 24.0% operating margin topped the high end of guidance, data center more than doubled year over year excluding Spirent, and the Q1 guide of $450M-$460M and $0.40-$0.42 EPS beats a $432M and $0.28 street. The $500M quarter moved up to calendar 2027 from fiscal 2028. CEO Oleg Khaykin called CPO yield-delay worries nonsense, since yield problems mean more testing, with CPO revenue starting this quarter. … Show more
VIAVI is a picks-and-shovels winner as AI data-center optical testing becomes its main growth driver. Revenue rose 42.8% to $406.8M on data-center and aerospace and defense demand, non-GAAP EPS jumped 80% to $0.27 with a 21% operating margin, and its network and service enablement segment grew 54.4% as Spirent contributes. Next-quarter guidance calls for $427-437M of revenue. The photonics buildout needs high-volume test and measurement, and data-center capex is surging. x.com x.com
Viavi looks expensive against its cash earnings: at 23x, versus the 11x its industry usually gets, it trades 77% above the high end of a $17.76–$22.60 fair range. That range is 11x next year's cash earnings, give or take 12%, and leans on a forecast 69% above trailing earnings. This is a valuation read only, with no fundamental work. x.com
VIAVI Solutions benefits from every fight in the interconnect layer, since copper versus optical and pluggable versus co-packaged all raise test intensity whoever wins. Its quarter beat cleanly: revenue rose 52.5% to $443.1 million, operating margin expanded 960bp to 24%, and Q1 EPS guidance of $0.40-0.42 crushed the $0.28 estimate. The test segment grew 69.2%. CEO Oleg Khaykin called CPO delay fears nonsense, saying yield issues mean more testing, with CPO revenue starting this quarter. x.com … Show more
Viavi remains a bottleneck play worth holding after beating estimates and guiding above consensus. Per @MartyChargin, quarterly EPS of $0.27 beat by $0.04 and revenue rose 42.8% to $406.8M, while June-quarter guidance of $0.29-0.31 EPS and $427-437M revenue tops consensus. x.com
Applied Optoelectronics looks undervalued if its capacity converts into the modeled revenue ramp. From disclosed capacity, quarterly revenue could rise from $858M in Q1 2027 to $1.89B in Q4 and $2.14B in Q1 2028, against a $6.8B market cap. A $7.5B annualized exit rate in 2027 at 40% gross margins would make an unchanged valuation surprising. Lumentum's capacity agreements into 2030-31 suggest demand may last beyond 2027-28, but execution risk remains. x.com
Viavi Solutions is one of the best ways to play co-packaged optics and photonics, and the dilution-driven dip is a good entry. Viavi is raising $500M to repay its $450M Term Loan B, about 2% dilution that cleans up the balance sheet, yet shares fell almost 6% after hours. At roughly 39x 2027 estimates it is cheap versus photonics and CPO peers, and fundamentally less risky. CPO is a 2028-and-beyond story, so this is a longer-term holding. x.com x.com x.com x.com x.com
Viavi's earnings were incredible, with revenue up 52.5% to $443.1M and non-GAAP operating margin rising to 24.0% from 14.4%. Non-GAAP EPS jumped to $0.34 from $0.13, which should drive a huge day for the stock. x.com
Credo's growth rides surging AI interconnect demand, and management expects revenue to grow more than 85% in FY27. F1Q27 revenue rose 115% to $479 million, EPS of $1.20 slightly beat, and F2Q27 guidance is $525-535 million. Active electrical cables remain the near-term engine as adoption broadens across hyperscalers and neoclouds; FY27 optical revenue is still expected above $600 million, though a higher optical mix dilutes gross margin. The $227 target rests on 20x FY28 EPS of $11.40. x.com
Optics will be one of the most important picks-and-shovels themes of the AI buildout over the next three to five years, because each new AI data center needs far more transceivers, coherent optics, DSPs, switches and fiber than traditional cloud. As clusters grow toward millions of GPUs, bandwidth demand grows exponentially. Expected EPS: Lumentum from $6.21 to $28.70 by 2028, Ciena $3.09 to $14.40, Marvell $2.96 to $9.20 by 2029, Applied Optoelectronics -$0.66 to $4.75, Corning $2.11 to $5.84. … Show more
