US stocks face a potentially bigger selloff as rising inflation compounds concerns about AI spending. PCE inflation reached a four-month high of 3.6%, increasing pressure on the Fed to raise rates; Alphabet shares fell after disappointing earnings, slowing ad growth and more than $51 billion of quarterly capital investment. x.com 

Expensive borrowing makes debt-funded AI projects harder to justify, pressuring AI stocks and the S&P 500. Inflation keeps pressure on rates. If Republicans lose Congress after the midterms, Trump could rely on executive action to speed permits, power projects and existing funding programs, keeping AI investment moving despite expensive money. Tech and risk assets could catch a bid if earnings hold and bond yields settle; Fed cuts remain uncertain. x.com 

Living costs in a stage 4 decline will take over from AI as the driver of the US equity bull market. AI drove it since 2023, but its capital spending and debt loads are in question; falling food prices, rents and housing prices make a bearish view hard to justify. x.com  x.com 

US stocks face a quiet but serious risk from the bond market, where the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007. Rising yields act like a slow tax, making borrowing costlier and pulling money from stocks; they reflect heavy borrowing, sticky inflation and a flood of corporate debt. The government had to announce large buybacks of long-term bonds to push yields down, which worked for now. A high yield is not a crash by itself, but it is a warning light. x.com 

Persistently high yields would make borrowing more expensive and pressure US stocks, housing and the government. Treasury tripled its bond buyback to $6 billion, yet the 10-year yield climbed to 4.85%, its highest since November 2023, after last month's doubled $4 billion buyback had cut the 30-year yield by nearly 10 basis points. Oil above $100, rising US debt and inflation fears are pushing yields higher. x.com 

US stocks benefit when rates rise with growth because earnings outpace the drag from higher discount rates. Such periods have historically been very bullish, unlike inflation-led rate rises amid slowing growth. Since fall 2025 the 10-year yield rose from 4.1% to 5.1% while nominal GDP growth accelerated to 6.6%, faster than rates. Being long offers better risk/reward; high oil prices due to the war are the remaining inflation pressure, and an end to the war would improve the setup further. x.com 

The 10-year yield above 5% limits how far the US equity rally can stretch, even as stocks shrugged off the Fed hold. Two policymakers wanted a hike, the 10-year rose to about 5.04%, and bonds sold while all four major indices closed higher. Rates need to cool for the rally to extend. x.com 

US stocks face pressure from rising yields and rate-hike anxiety as elevated oil keeps inflation fears alive. A global bond selloff deepened, the 10-year Treasury yield moved toward 5.2% and the 30-year touched levels last seen in 2004. Higher yields pressure stocks, bonds and borrowing costs, keeping US investors cautious; the S&P 500 edged lower and the Dow fell 0.3%. x.com 

Far less inflated valuations and significant AI earnings make US equities unlike the dot-com market top. AI/SI spending may still be overexuberant. Rates and yields have returned to historical averages; more oil through the Strait of Hormuz and from OPEC and Russia should lower oil and inflation. The market may not have bottomed yet, but falling yields, steady rates and the midterms passing should let it climb the wall of worry. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Credit tightening and data-center delays threaten the debt-funded AI boom behind the S&P 500. Junk-bond sales fell from $51B in September to $7B in October's first three weeks; CCC yields hit a four-year high, though quality firms still borrowed. Per S&P Global, 146 data-center projects were delayed or canceled, potentially weakening buildout credit. With 40% of the index in 10 names, this is dot-com and 2008 combined; stocks have not caught up, and even good firms may be sold. x.com