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IvanaSPEAR

Founder & CIO of Spear Invest, Portfolio Manager of SPRX ETF

30 Jul, 18:40Latest

Semiconductor equipment makers such as KLA and Lam Research are getting paid today, while megacaps debate only how fast AI returns arrive. Meta raised capex and opex guidance without the return math investors wanted, while Microsoft quantified roughly 30% ROIC on AI; neither is slowing spending. That makes the pullback the best opportunity in a very long time. Agentic AI, more than the broad data-center buildout, is the opportunity, with chip equipment enabling its next wave of capacity. x.com

KLAC

LRCX

30 Jun, 17:46

KLA and Lam Research may be among the biggest winners of the memory buildout, because every added wafer of DRAM or NAND needs billions of dollars of equipment that only a handful of companies can supply. Agentic AI will need multiples more memory and compute than model training: memory prices have surged, HBM is still supply constrained and even Apple faces higher memory costs. The only durable fix is more capacity, which Micron, SK hynix and Samsung are investing aggressively to build. x.com x.com

KLAC

LRCX

CMS Invests

Technology Investor, Options Trader, Finance at Kalshi

22h ago

NBIS

VST

MRVL

NOK

CRDO

A rising value of compute per watt should benefit AI cloud, chip, connectivity and power suppliers. Elon Musk says that value will rise over time. Nebius has Microsoft and Meta deals; Marvell benefits from custom silicon demand; Credo connects GPUs; Vistra has long-term nuclear supply deals with Amazon and Meta; Nokia's Nvidia partnership could help it capture data-center networking growth. x.com x.com

Samantha LaDuc

Founder & Strategist of LaDucTrading, Cross-Asset Analysis

22 Oct

SMH

Slowing AI capital spending keeps the semiconductor growth scare in play. Meta's cash flow is negative and Lam Research's capex is slowing, further evidence as the sector faces a growth-to-value rotation and a Fed pause next week. x.com

Paradise Capital

AI & Defense Investor, Ex-Special Operations/Private Military Contractor

18 Oct

ASML

TSM

GEV

AI suppliers' profits and signed demand distinguish this buildout from dotcom overcapacity. AI leaders rose 2.9x on 3.1x earnings growth versus 7.4x on 2.1x before 2000; cloud providers have $2.3T in signed backlog. Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta could repay debt with about six months' cash flow, unlike 2008's leveraged banks. Micron has multiyear take-or-pay deals and ASML has orders years ahead. Memory profits are cyclical; TSMC, ASML and GE Vernova remain favored in AI's early innings. … Show more

Mike

Investor, Creator of HiddenSmallCaps

22 Oct

SMH

Semiconductor fundamentals have improved as SpaceX and Meta say spending will rise further, while rates have come down. Earlier caution rested on fears that megacaps could not sustain spending and rising rates would slow AI investment; neither worry has played out. Today's selling feels more like stops being hit and investors giving up. x.com x.com

Tomislav Marinovic

Engineer, AI Value-Chain Research

25 Oct

SMH

Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com x.com x.com

Quality Value Research

Equity Research Boutique

2 Jul

SMH

Semiconductors may be nearing peak AI-infrastructure euphoria as hyperscalers appear to have overspent on capex. Per a Bloomberg leak, Meta plans to sell excess AI capacity to third parties, entering cloud; one of the world's largest GPU buyers placing surplus capacity is a first warning. The same session showed a textbook rotation, with semis (SOXX) down 6.4% and cloud software (WCLD) up 3.6%. AI is here to stay, but innovation doesn't equal investment success. x.com x.com x.com x.com

Bill Brooklyn

Capital Preservation, Asymmetric Risk/Reward, Holding Winners

29 Oct

GOOGL

NVDA

TSM

MRVL

VRT

PLTR

AVGO

AI infrastructure bottlenecks could give eight stocks as much as 18x upside. Nvidia supplies frontier-model GPUs; Broadcom and Marvell supply custom silicon and networking; TSMC makes advanced chips; Micron supplies sold-out HBM; Vertiv provides power and cooling; Palantir monetizes enterprise AI; Alphabet spans TPUs, research, cloud and apps. The list tracks where AI infrastructure spending is flowing. x.com x.com

Diamond Rapids

Semiconductor & Geopolitical Equity Commentary

1 Jul

SMH

Semiconductors will struggle to rise, with any rally sold, because Meta's move to rent out compute, exiting the arms race like xAI, has the market pricing a broad capex slowdown. Meta's spending is top tier, so the selloff prices in who is next; Microsoft may also pull back and drag semis down. Even in a benign reading, Meta is responding to market aversion to heavy capex, a sentiment top signal. If OpenAI and Anthropic ARR growth slows in a price war, QQQ could fall back to the 600s. x.com … Show more

Thierry from arvy

CFA, Co-Founder & CIO of arvy, Quality Investing

21 Oct

SMH

Some semiconductor stocks have returned to reasonable valuations as fundamentals improve, making recent declines buying opportunities. Many had traded at two to three times their median valuations; the correction brought some back toward normal, while sustained AI spending should benefit suppliers for years. x.com

Biotech2k

Biotech Investor, AI-Driven Drug Discovery

29 Jul

SMH

Semiconductors should return to their highs because AI spending keeps hitting records while chip stocks fall. Microsoft and Meta signaled roughly $250B of AI spending this year, effectively saying "buy more chips", yet chip stocks are down 24%. A drop beyond 30% would warrant more aggressive buying. x.com x.com

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