Will Slaughter
Fixed-Income Portfolio Manager at Protective Life
Bitcoin's demand has become a digital version of the Hunt Brothers' silver squeeze, and its unwinding should be quite a show. Per @DeItaone, Strategy has bought more than 171,000 bitcoin in 2026, far more than new mining supply, funded by high-yield preferred stock, while ETF inflows, hedge-fund arbitrage and retail trading have slowed and miners sell bitcoin to fund AI infrastructure. x.comÂ
Bitcoin needs buyers to return as ETF demand reverses sharply: Eliteonchain reports $321.6M of inflows over October's first four trading sessions followed by $729M of outflows over the next two, including withdrawals from IBIT and FBTC. x.comÂ
Bitcoin faces additional selling pressure because Binance's SAFU fund has 15,000 BTC to sell to cover hack losses. That supply will also suppress its price. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com x.com … Show more
Bitcoin's rebound faces constrained upside from dealer hedging and weak US spot demand. Seventy percent of dealer gamma sits at $75,000-$82,000 ahead of Friday's $11B options expiry; the Coinbase premium had no positive days in October and an $83,000 fakeout keeps traders defensive. The Fed hold spurred relief, ETFs added $110.34M and $176M, and record US debt drives long-term accumulation. A hot PCE print would raise December hike odds and pressure Bitcoin through higher yields. x.com x.comÂ
The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin's Coinbase Institutional withdrawals into the dip look like quiet accumulation. Whale Alert reported 648 BTC, worth about $51.9 million, moving from Coinbase Institutional to an unknown wallet, adding a different demand signal to the earlier ETF-flow case. x.comÂ
Strive's common ATM can lift long-run returns by funding bitcoin purchases at a share premium. Bitcoin is historically cheap; stacking in a bear market or before the bull market begins drives the biggest gains later. But too much weekly issuance can blunt upside, exhaust investors and cap mNAV expansion; share scarcity matters. The ATM is crucial, but caution is preferable. Cole Macro said preferreds should help keep dilution below Strategy's levels on the way up. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Strategy is attracting some of the world's largest fund managers because they want Bitcoin exposure. Their buying supports the bullish case for MSTR as a listed vehicle for institutional Bitcoin demand. x.comÂ
Bitcoin's supply and institutional buyer base are tightening, while an AI-hacking challenge failed to breach its security. A wallet funded with 100 BTC remained untouched after months of public challenge; fewer than 900,000 BTC remain to be mined, and Fidelity bought $24.5 million for its ETF. Senator Hagerty says the US will hold its 200,000 BTC and wants to buy more. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
Bitcoin may need sustained demand above all to outweigh selling pressure, since even favorable catalysts have coincided with declines. BTC fell despite rate cuts, a pro-crypto president, institutional adoption and rising liquidity; it now faces rate hikes, war in Iran, inflation, AI-bubble fears, quantum risks and AI-driven crypto hacks. x.comÂ
