CPS Technologies is riding a supplier mania that never ends well. The 'everyone is an Anduril supplier' story has turned into 'everyone is a SpaceX supplier', and the stock can ride that mania until it ends. x.comÂ
Fund.TBD
Swing Trader, Technical/Fundamental Analysis
CPS Technologies' risk-reward has worsened because its biggest catalyst, the SpaceX IPO, now looks set for a lower valuation than expected. The thesis rested on CPS's inclusion in a NASA ETF creating a constant bid around the IPO. A run to $15 is still possible, but better opportunities exist elsewhere. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
CPS Technologies is a critical part of SpaceX's supply chain and should reach $30+ before the June 12 SpaceX IPO. Satellite launches are projected to rise from 20,000 to 80,000 a year within a few years, US defense, a big customer, is heading to a $1.5 trillion budget, and AI workloads need its products too. Capital flow from the NASA fund locks up 10% of the float, and offering prices rose from $3 last October to $8 this week, showing rising institutional value. It has zero debt and $25M cash. … Show more
SpaceX's heavy spending and risk of further borrowing make its sharp stock rally hard to square with weakening debt and a huge lock-up expiration ahead. Bloomberg reports its bonds weakened and credit spreads widened despite earnings above estimates. Talk of a potential Tesla acquisition is also in the air. x.comÂ
SpaceX shares are worth hedging while everyone is hyped, with roughly $400B of unlocks still coming and the Anthropic IPO ahead. Per the FT, via @DeItaone, SpaceX is looking to raise $40B in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips. x.comÂ
Space stocks are turning bullish as oversold names that never stopped executing regain momentum, led by AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and flyExclusive. AST launched BlueBird and began direct-to-cell service in Japan, and Rocket Lab landed a roughly $400M award. AmpliTech's multi-sector exposure is overlooked, and CPS Technologies is a bottleneck play for 2027; Satellogic, Velo3D and Voyager also fit. The SpaceX unlock overhang is only partly gone, so re-entry should wait. x.comÂ
The selloff in smaller space stocks after SpaceX's IPO is an opportunity: it was mechanical rotation into the new benchmark, not a rerating, as Rocket Lab was sold the week it joined the Nasdaq 100. Satellites bill monthly for years while rockets get paid once; AST SpaceMobile stands out with approval and launch cadence. SpaceX is the core holding, Rocket Lab's Neutron the second-mover bet; Firefly, Virgin Galactic and Momentus are lottery tickets or survival cases. Suppliers are ballast. x.com … Show more
Space stocks lost expected support when the S&P committee rejected fast-tracking SpaceX into the index, removing forced passive buying, while funds sell tech to raise cash for next Friday's SpaceX IPO. Rocket Lab's $150 looks like the top, with a likely lower high, perhaps dropping to $100 on Monday before rebounding to $120-130. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's $85 billion IPO raise has to be spent, and that money will flow through its whole value chain. For SpaceX and Starlink, beneficiaries include electronics suppliers STMicroelectronics, Filtronic, TE Connectivity, Amphenol and Texas Instruments; materials makers Hexcel, Velo3D, CPS Technologies, Constellium and ATI; and designer AECOM. For xAI's Colossus, they include Nvidia, Dell, Super Micro and Arista, plus GE Vernova, Vertiv, Caterpillar, Tesla and Bloom Energy in power and cooling. … Show more
SpaceX is not making money, yet it is borrowing to buy Nvidia chips while relying on government money. It is looking to raise $40B of debt for AI compute, per @StockSavvyShay, and its CEO stands to receive an enormous compensation package from shareholders for work funded by taxpayers. x.comÂ