CK Capital
Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research
CPS Technologies' risk-reward has worsened because its biggest catalyst, the SpaceX IPO, now looks set for a lower valuation than expected. The thesis rested on CPS's inclusion in a NASA ETF creating a constant bid around the IPO. A run to $15 is still possible, but better opportunities exist elsewhere. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
CPS Technologies has a quiet but real moat: its aluminum silicon carbide thermal materials take years to qualify into defense and aerospace programs, and once qualified, a supplier stays in. 2025 revenue hit a record $32.6 million, and management called Q1's light revenue order timing, not weak demand. One semiconductor customer's contract grew from $12M to $15.5M. A NASA-themed ETF holding gives the $65 million micro-cap a structural passive bid that money chasing the SpaceX IPO should amplify. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
CPS Technologies is riding a supplier mania that never ends well. The 'everyone is an Anduril supplier' story has turned into 'everyone is a SpaceX supplier', and the stock can ride that mania until it ends. x.comÂ
Space stocks could regain high-beta flows as SpaceX lockups end and a probable late-November Anthropic IPO threatens AI stocks, much as SpaceX's IPO hurt space names. Hedge funds are overexposed to the Magnificent Seven and underexposed or max short low-quality high beta; falling rates and toppy oil could make the rotation painful for them through 2027. AST SpaceMobile could benefit as intermittent service triggers agreements and Blue Origin possibly returns to the pad in six weeks. x.com x.comÂ
CPS Technologies is a critical part of SpaceX's supply chain and should reach $30+ before the June 12 SpaceX IPO. Satellite launches are projected to rise from 20,000 to 80,000 a year within a few years, US defense, a big customer, is heading to a $1.5 trillion budget, and AI workloads need its products too. Capital flow from the NASA fund locks up 10% of the float, and offering prices rose from $3 last October to $8 this week, showing rising institutional value. It has zero debt and $25M cash. … Show more
A stronger SpaceX could lift the wider space-stock basket, including AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Redwire, Planet Labs, Intuitive Machines, Firefly Aerospace and Voyager Technologies. Per DeItaone, JPMorgan raised its SpaceX price target from $240 to $500 while maintaining Overweight. The seven space stocks rose alongside SpaceX after hours. Their initial post-IPO selloff was followed by macro-driven weakness, not further weakness caused by SpaceX. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Other space stocks look less attractive as liquidity concentrates in SpaceX. StonkChris expects most to face a tougher long-term outlook, though some may still win; the visible flow of liquidity into one name supports that concern. x.comÂ
CPS Technologies' institutional offering is negligible growth dilution and leaves the chokepoint thesis intact. The roughly $9M raise, about 5% of market cap, was priced at $8, up from $3 in October, and funds expansion such as relocating to a larger production site; 2025 revenue hit a record $32.6M. CPS is the only meaningful US-based vertically integrated AlSiC supplier, sole-source on many applications per its 10-K, and looks like Sivers did before its roughly 10x rerating. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Space stocks lost expected support when the S&P committee rejected fast-tracking SpaceX into the index, removing forced passive buying, while funds sell tech to raise cash for next Friday's SpaceX IPO. Rocket Lab's $150 looks like the top, with a likely lower high, perhaps dropping to $100 on Monday before rebounding to $120-130. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX is a $3T company doing only $18.7B of revenue with a negative profit margin, which even a brilliant IPO cannot justify. A tiny float, forced index and ETF buying, 4x oversubscription and a staggered lock-up created the demand, but this will not end well; it is not interesting anywhere above $100, and even profitability would not warrant $3T. Per a post the author replies to, staggered lock-up releases could free up to 65% of insider stock between late August and October. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
Space stocks are turning bullish as oversold names that never stopped executing regain momentum, led by AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab and flyExclusive. AST launched BlueBird and began direct-to-cell service in Japan, and Rocket Lab landed a roughly $400M award. AmpliTech's multi-sector exposure is overlooked, and CPS Technologies is a bottleneck play for 2027; Satellogic, Velo3D and Voyager also fit. The SpaceX unlock overhang is only partly gone, so re-entry should wait. x.comÂ
SpaceX will be at $100 or less in 12 to 18 months, as the odds after its IPO surge are not in buyers' favor. Up 40% since Friday, it is now larger than Amazon on hype. The market can stay irrational for a while, and there is no lockup pressure until earnings in August, but this is not a situation worth chasing. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
