Danny Marques
Bitcoin/AI Investor Relations at OG Advisory Group, Research at Finblueprint
SpaceX will be at $100 or less in 12 to 18 months, as the odds after its IPO surge are not in buyers' favor. Up 40% since Friday, it is now larger than Amazon on hype. The market can stay irrational for a while, and there is no lockup pressure until earnings in August, but this is not a situation worth chasing. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX is a $3T company doing only $18.7B of revenue with a negative profit margin, which even a brilliant IPO cannot justify. A tiny float, forced index and ETF buying, 4x oversubscription and a staggered lock-up created the demand, but this will not end well; it is not interesting anywhere above $100, and even profitability would not warrant $3T. Per a post the author replies to, staggered lock-up releases could free up to 65% of insider stock between late August and October. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
SpaceX's IPO is a classic wealth transfer from new buyers to pre-IPO holders: major IPOs at peak valuation are designed to let insiders and early investors cash out, with launch-day buyers providing their exit liquidity. SpaceX is down roughly 27% in five days. x.comÂ
SpaceX is an amazing company at an amazing price tag: a $2.7T market cap on $23B of projected 2027 EBITDA and no expected positive net income, versus Microsoft at $2.9T with $240B of EBITDA. The valuation reflects highly speculative but amazing future prospects and how few shares opened at the IPO. It will likely keep exploding higher for a while before an inevitable cool-off. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's valuation was completely stupid, and the stock could fall to $100. x.comÂ
SpaceX shares are worth hedging while everyone is hyped, with roughly $400B of unlocks still coming and the Anthropic IPO ahead. Per the FT, via @DeItaone, SpaceX is looking to raise $40B in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips. x.comÂ
SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.comÂ
SpaceX's valuation and upcoming share unlocks warrant caution, even after the stock rallied into October. About a trillion dollars of shares is unlocking, and VC funds and endowments mostly plan to recycle proceeds into venture or other equities now that SpaceX is public. Each unlock passing without much damage may breed complacency, which is when the biggest surprises hit; a rally through December would be even more surprising. The company itself is appealing. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX stock is better left alone until IPO hype, price discovery and insider supply settle, even though SpaceX is an incredible company. Jay Ritter's data show US IPOs from 2001-2024 lagged the market by about 14.7% over three years. SpaceX listed at $135, briefly topped $200 and has already had a massive drawdown, and its first major lockup expiry is making hundreds of millions of shares sellable against an unusually small float. A great company is not a great investment at every price. x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX was not a buy at its IPO because of its share unlock schedule, and that call is now playing out. Per @WatcherGuru, the stock has hit a post-IPO low below $140. x.comÂ
