Patient Investor
Real Estate Developer, Public & Private Equity Investor Since 2016
SpaceX has become a single-stock mania priced far beyond its business, and it rarely unwinds gently. Four days after its IPO it passed Amazon in market value, near $2.9 trillion versus $2.65 trillion, though Amazon books more revenue in one quarter, $181.5 billion, than SpaceX did in all of 2025, $18.7 billion. Per Vanda, retail bought nearly as much SpaceX in two days as the entire US market took in the prior week. Starlink is real and launch has no rival; this is about price, not the company. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX at 100 times sales is not a winning entry: buyers at $225 last week are already suffering. x.comÂ
SpaceX isn't worth touching until its market cap falls to $1 trillion, about $79 a share, versus $1.84 trillion on Friday. The $135 IPO price will likely act as support, at least initially. x.comÂ
SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.comÂ
SpaceX's IPO is a classic wealth transfer from new buyers to pre-IPO holders: major IPOs at peak valuation are designed to let insiders and early investors cash out, with launch-day buyers providing their exit liquidity. SpaceX is down roughly 27% in five days. x.comÂ
SpaceX will be at $100 or less in 12 to 18 months, as the odds after its IPO surge are not in buyers' favor. Up 40% since Friday, it is now larger than Amazon on hype. The market can stay irrational for a while, and there is no lockup pressure until earnings in August, but this is not a situation worth chasing. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX will be a $10 trillion company, so a roughly $2 trillion entry is not particularly expensive given where it will be in the 2030s. Per @ZaStocks, it just launched Google's TPUs into space, validating space data centers, and flew three missions in under 13 hours while landing four boosters, both firsts. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX is not making money, yet it is borrowing to buy Nvidia chips while relying on government money. It is looking to raise $40B of debt for AI compute, per @StockSavvyShay, and its CEO stands to receive an enormous compensation package from shareholders for work funded by taxpayers. x.comÂ
SpaceX buyers at $210 did not do their homework or understand its fully diluted share count. x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's revenue ambitions look implausible against current sales and the risk of overbuilding chips. Revenue is $14 billion this quarter, and even the Street's $120 billion forecast for next year looks aggressive. Its costs are within its control, leaving the risk heavily skewed against investors. x.comÂ