Fede Sandler
Former IRO at Mercado Libre/Nubank, Forbes Columnist
SpaceX's debt rests on paper-thin interest coverage from its current business. Its S-1 shows an accumulated deficit above $41 billion and negative interest coverage, metrics that would normally put a company in highly speculative CCC territory, yet it won an investment-grade rating and raised $25 billion in bonds. Per @DeItaone, those bonds are already showing steep losses as valuation, cash-flow and AI-debt concerns weigh. The bet is that Starlink and AI scale fast enough to fix coverage. x.com x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX's valuation was completely stupid, and the stock could fall to $100. x.comÂ
SpaceX's IPO is a classic wealth transfer from new buyers to pre-IPO holders: major IPOs at peak valuation are designed to let insiders and early investors cash out, with launch-day buyers providing their exit liquidity. SpaceX is down roughly 27% in five days. x.comÂ
SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.comÂ
SpaceX is a $3T company doing only $18.7B of revenue with a negative profit margin, which even a brilliant IPO cannot justify. A tiny float, forced index and ETF buying, 4x oversubscription and a staggered lock-up created the demand, but this will not end well; it is not interesting anywhere above $100, and even profitability would not warrant $3T. Per a post the author replies to, staggered lock-up releases could free up to 65% of insider stock between late August and October. x.com x.com x.com … Show more
SpaceX at 100 times sales is not a winning entry: buyers at $225 last week are already suffering. x.comÂ
SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX is not making money, yet it is borrowing to buy Nvidia chips while relying on government money. It is looking to raise $40B of debt for AI compute, per @StockSavvyShay, and its CEO stands to receive an enormous compensation package from shareholders for work funded by taxpayers. x.comÂ
SpaceX's IPO valuation does not add up: paying about 90 times sales for roughly 20% growth makes no sense in any dimension. Its launch business is plateauing, which raises the question of whether the stock is a generational buy or a massive bubble. x.comÂ
SpaceX will be a $10 trillion company, so a roughly $2 trillion entry is not particularly expensive given where it will be in the 2030s. Per @ZaStocks, it just launched Google's TPUs into space, validating space data centers, and flew three missions in under 13 hours while landing four boosters, both firsts. x.com x.comÂ
SpaceX will be at $100 or less in 12 to 18 months, as the odds after its IPO surge are not in buyers' favor. Up 40% since Friday, it is now larger than Amazon on hype. The market can stay irrational for a while, and there is no lockup pressure until earnings in August, but this is not a situation worth chasing. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ