SpaceX's IPO day is likely the exit, not the entry, because the hype will already be priced in. Past hyped IPOs fell hard after listing, Robinhood by 92%, Coinbase 93%, Rivian 95% and Uber 70%, while the real money was made at the bottom, with Robinhood about 22x off its low. If SpaceX is the business everyone believes, a better price will come on a bad macro tape; it is worth owning, just not on day one. x.com 

SpaceX's IPO is a classic wealth transfer from new buyers to pre-IPO holders: major IPOs at peak valuation are designed to let insiders and early investors cash out, with launch-day buyers providing their exit liquidity. SpaceX is down roughly 27% in five days. x.com 

SpaceX looks set up for a big 2027 as its stock has handled earlier share unlocks well and the lockup schedule winds down. About 798 million shares become eligible for sale after the December 8 close; the June 2027 block is Musk's, and he is not selling. Other extended-investor tranches continue through 2027. x.com 

SpaceX will be at $100 or less in 12 to 18 months, as the odds after its IPO surge are not in buyers' favor. Up 40% since Friday, it is now larger than Amazon on hype. The market can stay irrational for a while, and there is no lockup pressure until earnings in August, but this is not a situation worth chasing. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX shares are worth hedging while everyone is hyped, with roughly $400B of unlocks still coming and the Anthropic IPO ahead. Per the FT, via @DeItaone, SpaceX is looking to raise $40B in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips. x.com 

SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.com 

SpaceX was not a buy at its IPO because of its share unlock schedule, and that call is now playing out. Per @WatcherGuru, the stock has hit a post-IPO low below $140. x.com 

SpaceX faces a long overhang of unlocked shares. The stock fell back to its IPO price as 319 million shares held by early employees and investors became tradable, one step in a slow release that frees roughly 88% of its 13 billion shares by 2027. SpaceX lost over $100 billion in market cap that day, per @UnfilterFinance. x.com 

SpaceX is an amazing company at an amazing price tag: a $2.7T market cap on $23B of projected 2027 EBITDA and no expected positive net income, versus Microsoft at $2.9T with $240B of EBITDA. The valuation reflects highly speculative but amazing future prospects and how few shares opened at the IPO. It will likely keep exploding higher for a while before an inevitable cool-off. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX's IPO looks richly priced at about $1.75T for an unprofitable, founder-controlled, thin-float company, with demand driven by forced index buying rather than confidence. Nasdaq and FTSE Russell added fast-entry rules, making funds such as QQQ mandated buyers, while fully invested index funds must sell existing mega-caps to fund the new weight. The founder keeps about 82.4% of the vote, and 90–180 day lockups will add fresh supply once the forced bid fades. x.com