SpaceX faces near-term selling risk from an insider-share unlock despite a remarkably strong quarter. Tomorrow, 28% of its insider lockup pool, nearly 10% of all shares, becomes eligible for sale. Revenue reached $14.6 billion, up 161%, with $4.4 billion in net profit; $7.6 billion in AI revenue now exceeds Starlink and other connectivity revenue combined. x.com 

SpaceX shares are worth hedging while everyone is hyped, with roughly $400B of unlocks still coming and the Anthropic IPO ahead. Per the FT, via @DeItaone, SpaceX is looking to raise $40B in Apollo-led financing to buy Nvidia chips. x.com 

SpaceX's Q3 growth and guidance make a small position worth considering despite its still-expensive valuation. Revenue reached $14.58B versus $12.54B expected, up 161% year over year, and Q1 2027 guidance is $33B-$37B. A small start around $144 is under consideration, with more aggressive buying reserved for below the $135 IPO price. x.com 

SpaceX's IPO is a classic wealth transfer from new buyers to pre-IPO holders: major IPOs at peak valuation are designed to let insiders and early investors cash out, with launch-day buyers providing their exit liquidity. SpaceX is down roughly 27% in five days. x.com 

SpaceX isn't worth touching until its market cap falls to $1 trillion, about $79 a share, versus $1.84 trillion on Friday. The $135 IPO price will likely act as support, at least initially. x.com 

SpaceX is an amazing company at an amazing price tag: a $2.7T market cap on $23B of projected 2027 EBITDA and no expected positive net income, versus Microsoft at $2.9T with $240B of EBITDA. The valuation reflects highly speculative but amazing future prospects and how few shares opened at the IPO. It will likely keep exploding higher for a while before an inevitable cool-off. x.com  x.com  x.com 

SpaceX stock is better left alone until IPO hype, price discovery and insider supply settle, even though SpaceX is an incredible company. Jay Ritter's data show US IPOs from 2001-2024 lagged the market by about 14.7% over three years. SpaceX listed at $135, briefly topped $200 and has already had a massive drawdown, and its first major lockup expiry is making hundreds of millions of shares sellable against an unusually small float. A great company is not a great investment at every price. x.com 

SpaceX's unlock supply takes 2-3 months to absorb, setting up a December accumulation bottom. About 320M shares unlock Oct 24, up to 1.3B more after Q3 earnings, and a final tranche Dec 8. The float, not the business, is the problem: Q2 revenue grew 92% and Starlink has 12M subscribers. The bottom zone is $80-$90; $120-$140 bounces are traps. A $140 reclaim confirms a turn toward $300-$320 by April 2027; a daily close above $180 invalidates the setup. x.com 

SpaceX's projected growth is challenging the earlier overvaluation case, though the reassessment is still in progress. A VJN.ai chart projects revenue 273.3% higher by Q4 2027, even as the company is valued at $2 trillion. x.com  x.com 

SpaceX will be at $100 or less in 12 to 18 months, as the odds after its IPO surge are not in buyers' favor. Up 40% since Friday, it is now larger than Amazon on hype. The market can stay irrational for a while, and there is no lockup pressure until earnings in August, but this is not a situation worth chasing. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com