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Wayne Liang

Asymmetric Investment Research, Trade Alerts & Toolkits

28 May, 18:24Latest

CPS Technologies' institutional offering is negligible growth dilution and leaves the chokepoint thesis intact. The roughly $9M raise, about 5% of market cap, was priced at $8, up from $3 in October, and funds expansion such as relocating to a larger production site; 2025 revenue hit a record $32.6M. CPS is the only meaningful US-based vertically integrated AlSiC supplier, sole-source on many applications per its 10-K, and looks like Sivers did before its roughly 10x rerating. x.com x.com x.com

CPSH

27 May, 17:57

CPS Technologies' moat as the only US aluminum silicon carbide supplier at scale could carry it to a $5-10B market cap, beyond the short-term NASA ETF inflow catalyst. Its AlSiC survives extreme heat and sits in Navy armor, GPS III satellites, ISS electronics and radar and missile parts for Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop and General Dynamics, while most AlSiC is made in East Asia. A single ~$28M contract drove a ~900% rally in 2021; now a $1.5T 2027 defense budget and new Navy orders stack up. x.com x.com

CPSH

SasoEquity

AI & Robotics Investor

26 May

CPSH

CPS Technologies should be the biggest beneficiary as SiC and GaN power-module markets grow about 8x, because its aluminum silicon carbide baseplates solve a problem copper cannot. Baseplates must conduct heat and expand at the same rate as the ceramic above them; copper's mismatch makes it delaminate after about 4,000 thermal cycles. CPS's AlSiC offers 180 W/mK conductivity with a near-matched expansion rate and, per the company, survives tens of thousands of cycles. x.com

Sylent Capital

Stock Trader, Indicator Toolkit & Trade Signals

31 May

CPSH

CPS Technologies is a critical part of SpaceX's supply chain and should reach $30+ before the June 12 SpaceX IPO. Satellite launches are projected to rise from 20,000 to 80,000 a year within a few years, US defense, a big customer, is heading to a $1.5 trillion budget, and AI workloads need its products too. Capital flow from the NASA fund locks up 10% of the float, and offering prices rose from $3 last October to $8 this week, showing rising institutional value. It has zero debt and $25M cash. … Show more

CK Capital

Defense/Space/Tech/Photonics Investor, Co-Owner of CV Research

29 May

CPSH

CPS Technologies' risk-reward has worsened because its biggest catalyst, the SpaceX IPO, now looks set for a lower valuation than expected. The thesis rested on CPS's inclusion in a NASA ETF creating a constant bid around the IPO. A run to $15 is still possible, but better opportunities exist elsewhere. x.com x.com x.com x.com

TheValueist

Discretionary Long/Short Investor, TMT/Energy, Convexity & Factor Awareness

25 Mar

SIVE.ST

Sivers Semiconductors is crossing from an engineering and NRE model to a product-led component model, a shift that earns very different multiples. FY2025 revenue rose 25% to SEK304.1m, product revenue reached SEK85.7m (about 28% of sales), and it entered 2026 with a $453m non-binding pipeline. Wireless is the nearer-term, more de-risked engine; photonics for AI interconnects carries larger long-duration upside. The risk is that losses and negative cash flow dilute equity before products scale. … Show more

SasoEquity

AI & Robotics Investor

2 Jun

SIVE.ST

Sivers Semiconductors has a real, qualified design win with GlobalFoundries, answering short-seller doubts about its AI pipeline. GlobalFoundries is integrating Sivers' indium-phosphide laser arrays into its silicon photonics platform and SCALE co-packaged optics engines, the high-bandwidth, low-power interconnects AI clusters need. @MoodyWriter13 notes it is not a supply contract and has no delivery timeline or committed volume, but as a design win it is a big deal. x.com x.com

Fund.TBD

Swing Trader, Technical/Fundamental Analysis

22 May

CPSH

CPS Technologies is riding a supplier mania that never ends well. The 'everyone is an Anduril supplier' story has turned into 'everyone is a SpaceX supplier', and the stock can ride that mania until it ends. x.com

Alex A.C.

Value/GARP Investor, Semiconductor & Financial Analysis, Electronics MEng

3 Sep

SIVE.ST

Sivers Semiconductors' $30M expansion of its Glasgow InP fab, targeting over 100M CW DFB lasers a year by Q4 2027, likely means hard dilution. As @PhotonCap notes, the plan shifts Sivers toward hybrid manufacturing, and its capacity target and customer ramps remain forward-looking rather than committed volumes. x.com

Japan Deep Value

Japanese Equity Research, Deep Value & Below-Book Opportunities

18 Mar

SIVE.ST

Sivers Semiconductors is undervalued because its photonics subsidiary's valuation potential is likely grossly mispriced, though that unit deserves a hefty discount until listed. Sivers Photonics failed to list via a SPAC in 2024, even early in the AI boom; the main wireless business is boring; and unlisted subsidiaries trade at deep discounts until holders see a path to monetization. Per @aleabitoreddit, Sivers, a laser maker for hyperscaler photonic supply chains, is valued at only about $200M. … Show more

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