Q-Cap
Financial Satire & Grift Detection
Fastly is seeing an increase in traffic related to AI agents, according to the company, and its chart has moved opposite to the weak software sector. The stock is coming back into its 10-day moving average. x.com x.com
Fastly could really rerate on a blowout earnings report, with a low market cap and probable catalysts ahead from agentic AI use. Its daily and weekly charts are setting up well with excellent structure. x.com
Fastly is no longer a commoditizing CDN but a security and edge-compute platform that the AI traffic wave runs through, and the market still prices the old company. Q1 revenue rose 20% to a record $173M, accelerating from 15%; security grew 47% and compute/edge 67%. Gross margin hit a record 65.1%, adjusted EBITDA nearly quadrupled to $29.5M, RPO rose 63% to $369M, and full-year guidance was raised to $710-725M. A beat-and-raise with an AI tailwind fits what a software rotation rewards. x.com
Fastly is probably a long, even on the security angle alone. With its points of presence and edge network, it should only be a matter of time before its numbers are affected more meaningfully. x.com
Akamai has a good catalyst in its expanded partnership with Anthropic. Cloudflare is leading this group and Fastly is also setting up, giving good confluence across stocks that do broadly similar things. x.com
Financing announcements point to more accelerator demand, supporting semiconductors. About $200bn in announced Meta, Anthropic/Broadcom and SpaceX/Nvidia financing likely drives $400bn in XPU purchases. Data centers burn cash until lit, then cash flow 20-40% annually; AI spend rising from 0.1% to 0.5-1% of current payroll could balance the buildout if agents replace roles. Sustainable token demand is the bet, but smaller local models are the bigger risk, though not an immediate concern. x.com … Show more
Inference demand, not model release cadence, drives AI infrastructure, so dips in inference suppliers are unwarranted. Anthropic's CEO, with OpenAI's Sam Altman agreeing, committed only to third-party evaluations before releases, saying pacing does not mean halting training. Even if releases slowed, inference demand keeps climbing and older models need more infrastructure, benefiting Nvidia's GPUs, Micron's memory, Astera Labs' GPU connectivity, Marvell and Broadcom. x.com x.com x.com
DigitalOcean adds a concrete growth driver to the AI-agent basket. Per a firm the author quotes, it is focusing on the AI-optimized segment, growing at a 110% compound annual rate versus 25% for broader infrastructure-as-a-service. The basket holds pure plays: Circle and Coinbase for USDC machine payments and rails, DigitalOcean for AI website hosting, Fastly and Akamai for API calls and Cloudflare for edge computing. Amazon and Microsoft are less pure plays. x.com x.com x.com
Fastly could see meaningful upside as personal AI agents drive a surge in traffic and security needs at a low valuation. At a $3.8B market cap it trades at a far lower multiple than Cloudflare. Security, now 25% of revenue, grows 40% on DDoS protection, bot management and API discovery. Sell-side estimates of 12% growth for three years, with security slowing to 20% and 16% in 2027-28, look easy to beat at next week's investor day, where the CFO will give a multi-year framework and new products. … Show more
AI usage outstripping compute supply for the foreseeable future supports semiconductor demand despite cheaper tokens. Token prices fell about 90% in roughly three months, yet usage rose by more than that drop, so compute pricing keeps rising. AI revenue extends beyond LLM providers, including Meta, Google, Salesforce and ServiceNow. On- and off-balance-sheet debt is a risk; an AI bubble is likely eventually, but none is visible now. x.com