Mike
Investor, Creator of HiddenSmallCaps
Fastly could be an insane turnaround as token economics move its way, positioning it as a pure-play winner of AI inference. The whole point of AI is to get cheaper, and as it does, the vast majority of data should move to local edge servers. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Fastly is no longer a commoditizing CDN but a security and edge-compute platform that the AI traffic wave runs through, and the market still prices the old company. Q1 revenue rose 20% to a record $173M, accelerating from 15%; security grew 47% and compute/edge 67%. Gross margin hit a record 65.1%, adjusted EBITDA nearly quadrupled to $29.5M, RPO rose 63% to $369M, and full-year guidance was raised to $710-725M. A beat-and-raise with an AI tailwind fits what a software rotation rewards. x.comÂ
Fastly's overall offering falls far short of Cloudflare's, and the market has already rewarded the strongest cybersecurity players. Fastly is a more modern CDN than Akamai and has some cybersecurity exposure. Buying is off the table for now, though if forced to buy one stock, Fastly would probably be the pick. x.comÂ
Fastly is forming a double bottom near $17-17.50 after its pullback from about $34, and a close above $20 would confirm the base and target $23.32, with a volume gap that could speed the move. The 20- and 50-day EMAs are converging near $19-20 as support, and the 200 EMA near $16.50 keeps the uptrend from February intact. In June, management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance and launched AI developer tools. x.comÂ
Fastly's role with Meta Muse looks bigger than analysts have noted, which is bullish for a stock at 5x NTM revenue versus Cloudflare's 38x. In 738 controlled tests run by another investor, 29.3% of Muse agent traffic came from Fastly, versus 37.0% from Cloudflare, 19.4% from Meta and 14.4% from AWS. x.comÂ
Fastly looks cheap at under 5x sales, but its growth is already down to 15% and slowing, which does not look like the makings of a winner. This is a preliminary view pending deeper work. x.comÂ
Akamai has a good catalyst in its expanded partnership with Anthropic. Cloudflare is leading this group and Fastly is also setting up, giving good confluence across stocks that do broadly similar things. x.comÂ
Fastly is probably a long, even on the security angle alone. With its points of presence and edge network, it should only be a matter of time before its numbers are affected more meaningfully. x.comÂ
Fastly has one of the worst management teams in all of software, which makes the stock one to be careful with. x.com x.comÂ
Fastly could see meaningful upside as personal AI agents drive a surge in traffic and security needs at a low valuation. At a $3.8B market cap it trades at a far lower multiple than Cloudflare. Security, now 25% of revenue, grows 40% on DDoS protection, bot management and API discovery. Sell-side estimates of 12% growth for three years, with security slowing to 20% and 16% in 2027-28, look easy to beat at next week's investor day, where the CFO will give a multi-year framework and new products. … Show more