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David Einhorn's Greenlight expects Century Aluminum to beat consensus because sell-side estimates miss subsidy and tariff benefits and assume lower aluminum prices. Greenlight forecasts 2027 EPS of $14 versus $10.75 consensus and about $2.97 billion of cumulative free cash flow through 2028, roughly 90% of enterprise value. x.com
Greenlight Capital expects Century Aluminum to generate cumulative cash approaching its entire enterprise value by 2028, supporting its valuation case. Greenlight also sees two call options: an Oklahoma smelter incentive subsidy worth about $225 million annually and a possible Iceland smelter sale for roughly 65% of enterprise value. x.com
Alcoa looks cheap against its earnings, at 10x trailing and about 9x next year's versus the roughly 13x aluminum producers usually get. Applying 13x to next year's $5.80 EPS implies fair value of about $66-84, leaving shares about 25% below the low end. This read rests only on reported earnings and estimates, not fundamental work. x.com
Century Aluminum got two positive developments. Canada and the US failed to agree on cutting aluminum tariffs from 50% to 25%, keeping protection for US producers. Century's 6% interest in a Kentucky data center project is moving toward grid connection after Kentucky regulators approved TeraWulf's 482 MW power agreement, which TeraWulf says backs a 20-year Anthropic lease. x.com
Freeport-McMoRan looks expensive against its earnings at $77.97. It trades at 38x trailing and 19x next year's earnings, while copper miners usually get 13x. Applying 13x to next year's $4.14 EPS gives fair value of $47.31 to $60.21, leaving the stock 30% above the high end. The valuation leans on forecasts, with forward EPS 103% above trailing. This is a valuation-levels read only, without fundamental work. x.com
Southern Copper looks expensive against its sales. At $203.92 and a $172.2 billion market cap, it trades about 98% above the high end of a $80.84-102.89 fair value range based on 5x mid-cycle sales. It also trades at 28x forward earnings, 11x EV/sales and a PEG of 5.41. x.com
Alcoa is breaking out to a fresh 52-week high on heavy aluminum demand and a lack of supply. The breakout comes from a high rectangle, which per Bulkowski is the most reliable chart pattern for completing to target. The price target is 80. x.com
Copper, aluminum, Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto can climb to their 2008 supercycle highs, 4-5x current levels, as AI data centers and aerospace infrastructure such as SpaceX drive a capex cycle rivaling the 2000s China buildout, a Hugh Hendry call from his George Gammon interview. Per Hendry, aluminum is mispriced: no one can earn a competitive return on a new North American smelter at spot, so prices must multiply to fund the capacity US supply-chain decoupling needs. Accumulate on breakouts. … Show more
