Alphabet offers attractive risk/reward because its earlier equity raise suppressed the shares despite strong growth. The $80B-plus raise should suffice for now; another next year is uncertain. Search grew 17% in the prior results, while cloud revenue more than doubled in the latest. Investment losses, not the business, hit EPS; weaker free cash flow puts investors off. A search slowdown would be a warning flag, though Gemini and other businesses could soften the blow. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

Alphabet's businesses beyond search are why it will lead the real AI boom. Google Cloud, DeepMind and Waymo broaden its reach, and its $900 million SpaceX investment is now worth $85 billion. Fear emerging as the shares fall is an opportunity; a decline toward the buy zone is welcome, even as Q3 capex has taken a large hit out of free cash flow. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Rising S&P earnings revisions and a Nasdaq valuation far below the 2000 bubble level argue against a bull trap in US large caps. Nasdaq trades at 18x forward earnings versus over 80x in 2000. Positive breadth divergences, record short ETF exposure and put volume, and semiconductors waking up add to the case. In all 19 post-midterm instances cited, markets were very green over the following 12 months. x.com  x.com 

Alphabet's earnings growth makes its valuation look attractive. It trades at 21x forward earnings and a 0.47 PEG while EPS grows 34% year over year; shares are down almost 9% year to date. Search still grows 12% and Cloud grows 103%, undercutting the concern that Search will sink the business. x.com  x.com 

Google's valuation is absurdly low for its 25%+ ROIC, net cash and accelerating earnings growth. EPS grew about 20% annually over 15 years and 30% over five; even after a 10% after-hours drop, 14x 2028 earnings is far too cheap. The stock has beaten the S&P over every relevant period because its multiple has stayed too low for its quality. Search disruption fears overlook Google's talent, as strong as any company's. x.com 

The Nasdaq's earnings growth makes its valuation look ridiculously cheap for its quality and diversification. At 23x forward earnings, EPS grew 48% over the past year and net margins are 20%; the attached chart puts ROE at 35%. Extending 18% five-year EPS growth three years implies 14x earnings then with little debt and 30% ROIC; slower growth would still imply about 15x. Beating it requires extreme concentration, a mandate most active managers cannot get from LPs. Index figures per Claude. … Show more

Alphabet's exceptional revenue growth and expanding margins make a discount attractive if the market offers one. Quarterly revenue reached $125 billion, up 25%; search is growing faster than YouTube ads. The disappointing result reflects a mark-to-market on SpaceX, while the earnings call sounded great. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

US technology shares are way overvalued for realistic growth expectations. Their decline is a repricing toward more reasonable expectations, not the Black Monday-style crash some over-leveraged tech holders predict. x.com  x.com 

The Nasdaq's momentum selloff looks like a crowded AI trade unwinding into cyclicals, a washout rather than a top. Goldman's high-beta momentum index fell 24% in early July, its worst since April 2009, per @stocktalkweekly, yet the index held as money rotated rather than left, with AI names de-rating even on TSMC's beat. The real risk is financing: AI capex has outrun cash flow and runs on cheap money, debt and vendor paper, so tighter credit could stall the buildout even with strong demand. … Show more

Big Tech is priced on extrapolation bias, the same error made at every bubble peak, as bulls project explosive past earnings forward. Per Kailash Concepts, the 10 largest tech stocks trade at 50 times free cash flow with a 1.5 beta and a 1% total yield, while the 10 largest energy stocks trade at a 4% free cash flow yield, 24 times earnings and near-zero beta, a historic valuation gap hiding in plain sight. x.com