Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Low multiples give AI infrastructure good risk/reward as demand outruns supply and agentic workloads have runway. TSMC at 17x 2027E EPS appears to have all the accelerator and CPU demand it can handle this year and next; Ultra Clean is at 8x, MKS 12x, TTM 13x, Nvidia 14x and Celestica 15x. Kioxia at 3x and Samsung preferreds at 2.5x carry a big discount on pricing and cycle fears. Multiples imply a 2027 capex peak and meaningful drop; 2028 capex growth is expected, but below 2027's rate. x.com  … Show more

TSMC may lose pricing power as performance gains shift from shrinking transistors to stacking, interconnects and optics, while logic folding could make older processes competitive. Despite strong leading-edge demand, investors may overestimate the profit share its node leadership can retain. Its cautious expansion and past reluctance toward advanced packaging suggest a risk-averse culture that protects returns but could leave it late to disruptive technologies and key customers. x.com 

Scarcity across grid equipment, electrical steel, HBM, turbines and foundries leaves their suppliers with upside through 2028. The 2026-28 bottleneck scores are 94, 94, 93, 88 and 86 respectively; they measure constraints, not market size. The list covers Hitachi, Powell, TBEA, Nippon Steel, POSCO, Cleveland-Cliffs, Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, Howmet, TSMC, Intel and SMIC. Powell has the highest remaining upside at 7.5/10 with 3.2 risk; Intel scores 7.4 upside but 6.8 risk. x.com 

TSMC's capacity-constrained growth is holding margins through its costly 2nm ramp. Its Q4 revenue guide of $52.3-54.3B beats $49B consensus, implying 14% sequential growth, with 65-67% gross-margin guidance; planned Q4 capex is $19-23B versus $13.8B last quarter. World Trade Securities maintains Overweight and a $620 target. TSMC is also in talks to run Elon Musk's proposed Texas Terafab; additional fab and equipment demand depends on a deal. x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor trade faces a capex growth ceiling even if AI delivers what bulls expect. Spending cannot compound at 70-100% a year indefinitely, and compute per dollar roughly doubles every two years, so the same budget buys more capacity later. Today's chip valuations also demand years of 20% AI earnings growth beyond 2028: roughly 10.9 extra years for AMD, 8.9 for ASML, 7 for Marvell and 6.4 for TSMC, versus 1.6 for Broadcom and 0.8 for Nvidia; Micron needs none under the chart's assumptions. … Show more

A supply response could compress Western Digital's pricing and margins, eroding its apparent cheapness. Its 2013-24 normalized earnings merit a look: even huge demand growth in other industries eventually drew supply and mediocre returns. A digestion/reset would hurt buy-and-hold investors, though the outcome is uncertain. Pre-AI economics were mediocre and unlikely to become amazing post-AI; TSMC's stronger pre-AI economics make its post-AI case better. x.com  x.com  x.com 

TSMC's capex plans suggest the AI chip trade is not over for semiconductors, Nvidia, AMD and Micron. CFO Wendell Huang cites robust multi-year demand, including agentic AI, behind $60-64 billion of 2026 capex; TSMC expects 2026-28 spending to be even more significantly higher than in the prior three years. Hyperscaler earnings should reinforce the higher AI capex trajectory. CoreWeave-driven fears feel overdone, though the neocloud model does not appeal long term. x.com  x.com 

TSMC's latest results point to AI chip demand still running ahead of supply, supporting the semiconductor and equipment trade. Cantor says TSMC raised its 2026 revenue outlook again, guided December-quarter sales above consensus and held 65-67% gross-margin guidance through the N2 ramp; its bullish sector read names Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA. Jensen Huang says AI labs need not reach trillions in revenue to justify the buildout. x.com  x.com 

TSMC captures more value as advanced nodes and packaging expand revenue beyond wafer volumes. In Q3 2026, N2 rose from 3% to 8% of wafer revenue, HPC reached 68%, and revenue grew 50.9% in TWD versus 9.6% wafer-shipment growth. N2 ramping squeezed gross margin, yet TSMC generated nearly $15B in free cash flow after $13.8B of capex. TSMC expects 2026-28 capex significantly above the prior three years; Wendell Huang says revenue growth should outpace capex growth if they do their job right. x.com  … Show more