Bitcoin's near-term macro backdrop is not yet favorable because the Fed balance sheet is stuck at $6.75 trillion, so patience is warranted. The Fed will eventually have to step in for debt markets. ETF inflows leave time for October to turn positive, while Bitwise raised its 2036 target to $1.6 million and says institutions may allocate 1% to 5% as adoption and debasement-hedge demand rise. A U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve may start buying very soon once crypto rules are settled. x.com  x.com  … Show more

Capital is rotating out of AI capex into areas it starved for two years. Health care, airlines, defense and metals are where the market wants to be for the six weeks to the December 9 Fed meeting; gold and silver are bought on every dip. Risk is still being taken elsewhere: if S&P futures hold 7,700, the rotation carries the index; if they lose it, this was a correction in disguise. x.com 

The Fed's continuing inflation focus and prospect of expensive money for longer are eroding Bitcoin's initial relief from the rate hold. At the 3.75%-4.00% hold, two officials voted to hike; Warsh left further tightening open but did not commit to a December hike. BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF drew $136M yesterday, its third straight inflow session, showing buyers are still present. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Institutional clients moving into Bitcoin add real backing to the AI-to-crypto rotation. T. Rowe Price's digital-assets head Blue Macellari said the $1.86T manager is actively bringing clients into Bitcoin and other crypto assets; trillions in capital are expected onchain over the next few years. At a conference with well over $50T, if not $100T, in AUM, many said the rotation has begun. It should accelerate in Q4, and the next crypto leg will be aggressive, with many still sidelined. x.com  … Show more

Bitcoin benefits as the risk of creating gold through alchemy has entered public consciousness. That perceived threat to gold's scarcity supports a long Bitcoin position as a persistent theme. x.com 

Gold has formed a multi-year top at $5.6K and won't return there before 2030. It is in a high-timeframe distribution phase, with trillions of dollars rotating out of gold into US equities, bitcoin and Chinese equities, fueling the next risk-on environment. Silver showed a classic blow-off top, and the same applies to gold. x.com 

Gold is set to run as an oil and energy spike, following the interest-rate spike, sets off bond-market contagion. Few investors are positioned for that move, which should lift crypto alongside gold. x.com 

Gold is extremely attractive now because rising market fear could make it a great hedge. It has fallen nearly 30% from its January all-time high and returned to the accumulation zone. If this level holds, expect a bounce soon. x.com 

Rising Treasury yields make non-yielding gold less attractive, setting up one major selloff before the next big rally. Oil above $100 adds inflation and rate pressure; higher yields could lift the dollar, while gold ETF outflows and forced selling in a liquidity crisis add risk. The Benner Cycle flags 2026 as a potential selling period. The long-term bull market is not necessarily over: central banks are still buying and long-term demand remains strong. Gold is not worth chasing at these levels. … Show more

Risk assets look set to rotate ahead of gold after four years in which US stocks, small caps, Ether and altcoins were all in a bear market against it. Gold ran past $5,000 and is now pausing on profit-taking and higher rates, often when everything else catches a bid. The S&P 500 priced in gold is bottoming at the 0.618 Fib, up about 8% this month in gold terms while down 7% in dollars; small caps are up 9% against gold, and bitcoin against gold likely bottomed at 13. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more