Tech and semiconductor bounces are mainly driven by less urgent hedge-fund selling rather than fresh buying. Per Goldman Sachs, tech is still being sold amid very low activity; there is no sign risk has been added yet. The unwind may be nearing its end, especially as hyperscalers stick to capex plans and Q3 semiconductor earnings look likely to be positive. Less crowded positioning and more normal multiples leave a healthier base for a longer-term rebuild. x.com 

Semiconductors have likely already put in a major top, with their first bounce extremely weak. Semis are working back into big-volume selling with weak upside volume, and many stocks aren't joining the hardware rally as they should. Everyone on X still wants these stocks despite poor price action and volume, which is classic market-topping behavior. x.com  x.com 

Some semiconductor stocks have returned to reasonable valuations as fundamentals improve, making recent declines buying opportunities. Many had traded at two to three times their median valuations; the correction brought some back toward normal, while sustained AI spending should benefit suppliers for years. x.com 

Semiconductors look to be topping and should resolve lower into September, as the market prices in slowing capex in 2027. Strong earnings beats look in the rearview mirror; if Q2 was near peak, big beats are expected, and record backlogs are typical at peak demand and can be cut fast once spending slows. The semiconductor ETF has completed its upside correction and is losing steam, with new lows likely by September, which would weigh on a Nasdaq expected to slip toward its 200-day average. x.com  … Show more

Semiconductors will need time to repair and build a base after the current correction stops. Price action deteriorated through June, with wide, loose moves, many gains made on gap-ups and overconfident traders, signs of an overcrowded group. New supply from the SK hynix ADR came at horrendous timing and hurt the group further. The correction is healthy for the market, and earnings from chipmakers and especially hyperscaler capex will offer clues on the group's health. x.com 

Semiconductors could capture scarce spot compute's value if its forward curve holds. Compute trades in deep contango, while chip stocks price in little of that value; near-term moves are unpredictable. That makes the sector very bullish. The earlier lab-funding risk looks less acute: Anthropic should hold nearly $200B cash after its IPO and is operating-cash-flow profitable. Even with 2029 capex cuts, chips look cheap if future buyers do not default. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor stocks may have lost their marginal buyers, leaving room for real price discovery. Those buyers may have been one leveraged whale, Leopold Aschenbrenner, his copycats and Korean retail investors now getting margin called. With oil and likely higher rates into year-end, it is unclear what will push semiconductors back to all-time highs. x.com  x.com 

The semiconductor sector's bloat makes selectivity important. Nvidia, TSMC and ASML are among the best businesses still worth owning, but not every name will recover from this month's selloff. Chasing unprofitable, highly leveraged small caps should be a lesson from the selloff. x.com 

Semiconductors look relatively cheap against the S&P 500, while their earnings are growing much faster, barring an EPS reset. The selloff looks overdone, though that does not mean it reverses tomorrow. x.com 

Semiconductors are set up for a violent, DRAM-style bust because demand again hinges on a few big customers and one theme, an AI training and benchmarking phase that will not last. NVIDIA is hurt badly if even one customer pulls back. Unlike Cisco's fungible parts, it funds custom TSMC lines, with $182 billion of purchase commitments exceeding its annual operating cash flow. Microsoft's receivables with NVIDIA jumped to about $12.2 billion, suggesting it pulled forward chips it is warehousing. … Show more