Semiconductor leaders look better placed than high-beta stocks with poor company models. TSMC, ASML, Nvidia and memory should lead the sector and belong in the buy basket, with Broadcom not far behind. The CPU basket is only a hold: much of its upside was priced in during Intel and AMD's run. x.com 

Low PEG ratios and continuing AI demand make leading AI stocks attractive after rolling corrections. Nvidia is at 0.39x PEG, Amazon 0.64x, Broadcom 0.66x, Micron 0.73x, Oracle 0.59x and TSMC 0.41x. This usually signals at least a local bottom, possibly a major one; midterm-year seasonality helps into year-end. Nvidia, Broadcom and Amazon remain favorites; Micron and TSMC look buyable on dips. Low PEG can mislead if growth slows or estimates are wrong. x.com 

TSMC may lose pricing power as performance gains shift from shrinking transistors to stacking, interconnects and optics, while logic folding could make older processes competitive. Despite strong leading-edge demand, investors may overestimate the profit share its node leadership can retain. Its cautious expansion and past reluctance toward advanced packaging suggest a risk-averse culture that protects returns but could leave it late to disruptive technologies and key customers. x.com 

Semiconductors will be much higher in 12 months if the market's real doubt is whether this cycle lasts another year. The cycle feels like the bottom of the third inning while the market prices a seventh-inning stretch, which is why so many chip names look like must-owns at these valuations. In order of preference: Nvidia, Credo, Astera Labs, Lumentum, Broadcom, TSMC, Coherent, Marvell, then SK hynix and Micron. x.com 

ASML, TSMC and BE Semiconductor are the safer, easier-to-understand way to own AI because they sit in the industrial part of the chain. The big question in AI is timing, which no one can call, and Nvidia's software moat is impossible to understand or trust with confidence. A quoted post notes that Crésus sold Nvidia, expecting faster AI progress to favor the owners of models and factories over chip designers. x.com 

NVIDIA, Broadcom, Micron and TSMC should be worth less because AI risk has risen while the expected reward has not. The CEOs of Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX and Tesla have said AI risks killing all humans and needs to slow down, yet not a single analyst cut ratings or price targets on these chipmakers. In game-theory terms, higher risk with the same reward makes the bet worse. x.com 

Semiconductors could stay undersupplied for a long time as more capable AI per dollar creates more uses and drives compute demand. Micron and NVIDIA trade at low forward P/Es because investors fear peak cyclical earnings, yet current earnings show no slowdown. Shortages may worsen as AI adoption spreads, though the industry could remain cyclical; a reversal of the forced rollover trade is hoped for, not assured. x.com  x.com  x.com 

John Tinsman's screen for profitable large caps in high-growth sectors with low valuations makes Nvidia, Micron, Sandisk, Broadcom, Meta and Alphabet buys. Tinsman expects downside volatility in growth and tech while seeking to retain their upside potential. x.com 

Rising Chinese competition and doubts about valuations add to Nvidia's downside risk as the AI sector bleeds. Nvidia's break from an uptrending triangular pattern rarely ends well; the AI bubble is cracking, and the trendline break marks the beginning of something much bigger. x.com 

Uncertain AI-capex profits and higher oil costs from Iran still threaten US stocks. The SPCX-Nvidia deal brought much-needed overnight inflows to chips and is shifting sentiment, but tech's waterfall decline will not heal with a sharp V-bottom. Be prepared for a big fade. x.com