Lam Research's record results suggest the equipment cycle is not ending despite its stock selloff. Revenue reached $8.22B, up 54% year over year and over 20% sequentially, while EPS rose 75%; ASML and TSMC also report customers needing more tools. Overweight with a $355 target and 35% upside, but the selloff is a gift only if Lam guides December higher. x.com  x.com 

Lam Research's comments about 2027 supply constraints bode well for semicap subsystem suppliers Ultra Clean, MKS Instruments and Ichor, which have substantial cyclical torque. The three trade at 7-12x estimated 2027 EPS. x.com 

Aixtron and Veeco will probably never see their old highs again, because semiconductor equipment makers look stretched above about 11x price-to-sales. Fifteen years of software multiple expansion have conditioned investors to accept high multiples, but equipment makers have very different margin structures. The broader bull market is still far from over even though fundamentals look overheated, with momentum doing the heavy lifting. x.com 

Next-generation AI systems could double wafer demand, keeping the long-term outlook compelling for semiconductor equipment makers. Applied Materials targets more than $12 billion in services revenue and roughly 40% operating margins by 2030; management expects over two points of share gains and potentially more than $5 billion in advanced-packaging revenue, driven by HBM and AI demand. Bullish on Applied Materials, Lam Research, ASML and KLA. x.com 

Chip-equipment makers look cheap given supply-chain shortages and demand visible toward 2029-30. At Semicon West, no one raised demand concerns; suppliers' suppliers lacked capacity, while several high-quality names trade below the S&P multiple. Per Lynx's KC, customers are asking about delivery three to four years out. For Lam Research's report, bottlenecks, pricing and visibility beyond 2027 matter more than demand. x.com  x.com 

Semiconductor equipment makers such as Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research look like shorts, a view Michael Burry now shares: per @zerohedge, Burry says he shorted Applied Materials, along with Tesla, Nvidia and, for the first time, Caterpillar. x.com 

Semiconductor equipment subsystem makers Ichor and Ultra Clean are the deeper edge in AI capex, since subsystems tend to outperform when the wafer fab equipment cycle expands. Both sell directly to Applied Materials and Lam Research. Ichor is a $1.9B pure-play gas and chemical delivery supplier and a high-beta play, while Ultra Clean, at $3.3B with services, is more stable but pulls the same lever. x.com 

The big four US-listed chip equipment makers, ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA, are better buys than memory makers. Memory expansion is AI hardware's core bottleneck, and political pressure, already visible in US Commerce Department comments and the SK hynix ADR fundraising, will not let Samsung, SK hynix and Micron expand at their own pace. As in the 2020-21 CHIPS Act era, they will be pushed to expand fast, and equipment vendors become the surest winners, not yet fully priced. … Show more

Semiconductor leaders look better placed than high-beta stocks with poor company models. TSMC, ASML, Nvidia and memory should lead the sector and belong in the buy basket, with Broadcom not far behind. The CPU basket is only a hold: much of its upside was priced in during Intel and AMD's run. x.com 

Some semiconductor stocks have returned to reasonable valuations as fundamentals improve, making recent declines buying opportunities. Many had traded at two to three times their median valuations; the correction brought some back toward normal, while sustained AI spending should benefit suppliers for years. x.com