Monis
Equities Trader, Oversold Reversals & Earnings Plays
Lumentum is seeing massive bullish call buying, a sign of crazy demand for the stock. A quoted post argues that with Nvidia declaring physical AI is here, the trade is the whole stack Nvidia needs to build it, with Lumentum among the optics suppliers. x.com
Lumentum is a $1,800 stock trading at $900. x.com
The photonics-as-AI-bottleneck claim has faded, leaving Lumentum facing more pain before the theme recovers. A large December options node sits at $600; the stock bot targets downside at $650 and $595, with $581 a possible liquidity sweep where smart money would buy instead of rushing in at $650 or $630. Most photonics companies will likely never come back. x.com
A buyout would devalue Lumentum's work and be the worst outcome for shareholders when demand and investor interest are strong. Lumentum has been exceeding demand requirements and doing exceptionally well on its own, so it is better off independent; if the rumors are rejected, its rally should continue higher. x.com
Lumentum's breakout to a record weekly close, up 15.3% and erasing five months of chop in one week, is backed by revenue growing 109% year over year rather than hype. x.com
Lumentum is a great business, but at $954 its risk/reward is not attractive. Applying 30x to fiscal 2028 non-GAAP EPS of $40 gives a 2027 price target of $1,200, about 26% upside, or roughly 15% after adjusting for execution, financial, technology and supply risks. Reaching it needs on-time manufacturing ramps, sustained pricing power and cash flow without excessive dilution. Lost pricing power plus slipping OCS or laser ramps would break the thesis; a significant dip would offer a better entry. … Show more
Lumentum's market cap wants to be much bigger because the data center infrastructure business is getting much bigger. Technically, a daily cup-and-handle breakout targets $900 or a bit higher, with a strong weekly candle taking out prior highs and a fresh bullish MACD crossover. The main worry is a heavily overbought weekly RSI. x.com
Lumentum is set up for a short squeeze at new all-time highs, given its small float and 16% short interest. x.com
Lumentum requires paying up heavily for a company that is not yet making money. Revenue grew 109% year over year, but it trades at about 25 times annualized sales, and it is growing less than memory makers at ten times their valuation. @ZeekTyt cites Lumentum's CEO expecting to supply only about 30% of requested laser demand as CPO and NPO ramp in 2027, with balance around 2029-30. x.com x.com
Lumentum's CEO said at Deutsche Bank's tech conference that it can earn $40-plus of EPS in FY2028 after a huge uptick in its order book. That is nearly 5x the $8.67 earned in FY2026 within two years, and well above the sell side's $33 FY2028 estimate, so the stock should have risen around 10% on it. x.com