Deep Inference
Partner at Aion Analytics, Quantitative Markets Research
Batteries could be this winter's hot theme trade, much as quantum stocks were in October 2024, because they are a pick-and-shovel play on humanoid robots. Names include Eos, QuantumScape, Solid Power, SES, Microvast, Enovix, Amprius, KULR, American Battery Technology and China BAK. This is more a hunch that something is brewing than a worked-out case. x.com x.com x.comÂ
QuantumScape is a highly speculative bet that this week's 13F filings reveal hedge funds loading up, after Renaissance, Vanguard and BlackRock raised stakes in Q4. It trades at a $5B valuation with $1B of cash and 20% short interest, as volume and call open interest climb. A solid-state battery leader with patents, it has expanded beyond EVs to AI data centers and defense and switched to licensing. The risk: solid-state batteries have been "almost here" for 5+ years and remain at pilot scale. … Show more
Deep drawdowns and extreme pessimism are making the long-term risk/reward more attractive for AI-infrastructure names such as Cipher Mining, CoreWeave, Eos Energy, Galaxy Digital, IREN Limited and T1 Energy. After 50-90% drawdowns, many trade at bear-market discounts and near major support, making downside easier to define. This depends on believing their long-term fundamentals and growth; not every name will be a winner. x.com x.comÂ
QuantumScape is a poor business, with heavy dilution and self-enriching executives, a clear sign that executive pay is the only way left to make money in a high-capex, low-margin battery business. x.comÂ
QuantumScape's diversification into data-center energy storage supports accumulating now, ahead of a likely 2027 takeoff. It introduced the QS PowerBlock for AI data centers, claiming 4x the power density and 5x the runtime of current industry standards. The stock keeps getting pummeled along with most high-beta names, but its time will come. x.comÂ
These 15 growth stocks across distinct sectors offer high reward with credibility and still have room to run: Penguin Solutions, Ondas, Bloom Energy, T1 Energy, Amprius, Firefly Aerospace, Rocket Lab, Satellogic, Planet Labs, One Stop Systems, Eos Energy, IonQ, Lightwave Logic, AXT and AST SpaceMobile. x.comÂ
QuantumScape has a second growth leg the market is not pricing: battery-in-rack backup for AI data centers. Its non-combustible ceramic separator lets cells sit inside server racks, buffering millisecond power spikes faster than external UPS systems as racks pass 100 kW. In EVs, Honda signed a development deal after validating hardware. A hyperscaler design win would re-rate it as AI infrastructure. It has $904M of liquidity, but is pre-revenue and depends on scaling its Cobra process reliably. … Show more
QuantumScape may be ready for another bull wave after significant news involving Honda. Honda has already shown success with its own solid-state batteries, so the development cannot be ignored. @DocPod4, whom the author agrees with, says one contract could double the stock and that AI data centers or defense drones could also become customers. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Robotics is the next leg of AI, and its component suppliers can benefit as the buildout scales. Elon Musk expects at least a billion robots in 10 years; Morgan Stanley sees a $5 trillion market by 2050. Tesla can build Optimus at million-unit scale. Ouster's LiDAR revenue rose 56% to $55M; Intuitive Surgical's procedures grew 16%; NXP is reportedly in talks to buy Ambarella for about $3.3B; Cognex posted a record $291M quarter, up 17%; AMETEK supplies motors, actuators and sensors. x.com x.com … Show more
Robotics could be one of the biggest investing themes of the next decade, so the opportunity lies in connecting the dots across its ecosystem early. Morgan Stanley estimates the humanoid market could reach $5T by 2050, with nearly 1 billion robots in use. The chain runs from robot makers such as Tesla and Agility Robotics to AI chips from Nvidia and Qualcomm, memory, sensors, edge AI, precision motion and joints, power electronics, batteries, rare-earth magnets and industrial robotics. x.comÂ
Robotics stocks may follow memory's path, a gradual build into an aggressive rally. Micron, which likely knows where compute demand is heading, launched a $250M fund for the next-gen AI stack, including physical AI. Unitree's China IPO, possibly next Monday at $9B and above $40B on pre-IPO perps, might spark a rally in less-run US-listed names; humanoid robotics still looks bullish on higher timeframes. This year's IPOs, such as Cerebras and SpaceX, weighed on proxies after, so expect swings. … Show more
