QuantumScape is a poor business, with heavy dilution and self-enriching executives, a clear sign that executive pay is the only way left to make money in a high-capex, low-margin battery business. x.comÂ
DVB
Deep-Value Investor, Ex-Tech Executive, Agentic Equity Research Builder
QuantumScape has enormous potential but still a lot to prove, and at a $5B market cap much of the hype is priced in. It never retested $5 and powered through expected resistance near $7.80, so it is a pass for now, despite real long-term potential if the company executes. x.comÂ
The Shortlist targets companies it tags as pump-and-dumps, industry bubbles, constrained-float cases, potential fraud or overleveraged. Its Oct. 23 realistic-value estimates imply large downside, including 79% for ReAlloy, 53% for Critical Metals, 60% for Infleqtion and 62% for Quantinuum. x.comÂ
QuantumScape's diversification into data-center energy storage supports accumulating now, ahead of a likely 2027 takeoff. It introduced the QS PowerBlock for AI data centers, claiming 4x the power density and 5x the runtime of current industry standards. The stock keeps getting pummeled along with most high-beta names, but its time will come. x.comÂ
QuantumScape's PowerBlock has no customers, producers or contracts and was absent from a recent trade show, making CEO Siva Sivaram's promotional photos look like vaporware. Sivaram should be fired immediately and replaced by a competent businessperson before shareholders are wiped out. The board should also stop officers selling shares; Tim Holme has dumped $150 million worth amid continued poor performance. x.comÂ
QuantumScape is less attractive than Tempus AI because it is still pre-commercial and burning a lot of cash. x.comÂ
QuantumScape is a highly speculative bet that this week's 13F filings reveal hedge funds loading up, after Renaissance, Vanguard and BlackRock raised stakes in Q4. It trades at a $5B valuation with $1B of cash and 20% short interest, as volume and call open interest climb. A solid-state battery leader with patents, it has expanded beyond EVs to AI data centers and defense and switched to licensing. The risk: solid-state batteries have been "almost here" for 5+ years and remain at pilot scale. … Show more
Eos Energy Enterprises ranks ahead of QuantumScape because its real deal with Google lends it far more legitimacy than the last time the stock traded at this price. Many promising energy-tech companies have not proven their technology commercially at scale; a few will become large multibaggers while more will fail, so a Google deal is a meaningful catalyst. Whether management can execute, after a poor record, remains the key question. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Atlassian is far less cash-rich than it looks once stock-based compensation is treated as a real cost. About $1.3 billion of operating cash flow and only $50 million of capex look strong, but roughly $1.5 billion of SBC is the real spend, $165 million more than operating cash flow. Paying employees in stock flatters cash flow while diluting shareholders, and buybacks only partially offset SBC rather than reducing the share count. x.com x.comÂ
QuantumScape has a second growth leg the market is not pricing: battery-in-rack backup for AI data centers. Its non-combustible ceramic separator lets cells sit inside server racks, buffering millisecond power spikes faster than external UPS systems as racks pass 100 kW. In EVs, Honda signed a development deal after validating hardware. A hyperscaler design win would re-rate it as AI infrastructure. It has $904M of liquidity, but is pre-revenue and depends on scaling its Cobra process reliably. … Show more
Snap has enriched insiders at shareholders' expense, with insiders paying themselves $11 billion since IPO against a market cap of just $8 billion today. Forcing out Evan Spiegel and cutting the endless stock-based compensation would earn it a chance, and the potential to turn the ship around is real. x.com x.com x.com x.comÂ