Mitchell Martan
Investment Researcher for The Long Investor, Economics/Finance Background
QuantumScape has enormous potential but still a lot to prove, and at a $5B market cap much of the hype is priced in. It never retested $5 and powered through expected resistance near $7.80, so it is a pass for now, despite real long-term potential if the company executes. x.comÂ
QuantumScape is a poor business, with heavy dilution and self-enriching executives, a clear sign that executive pay is the only way left to make money in a high-capex, low-margin battery business. x.comÂ
QuantumScape's diversification into data-center energy storage supports accumulating now, ahead of a likely 2027 takeoff. It introduced the QS PowerBlock for AI data centers, claiming 4x the power density and 5x the runtime of current industry standards. The stock keeps getting pummeled along with most high-beta names, but its time will come. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a second- or third-tier genomic lab whose AI story is marketing mumbo jumbo, and its management team are promoters. x.comÂ
Tempus AI is a short idea because the stock is being pumped on recent FDA clearances for its EKG-AI tools, while the revenue from them is far off and may never materialize. x.comÂ
QuantumScape is a highly speculative bet that this week's 13F filings reveal hedge funds loading up, after Renaissance, Vanguard and BlackRock raised stakes in Q4. It trades at a $5B valuation with $1B of cash and 20% short interest, as volume and call open interest climb. A solid-state battery leader with patents, it has expanded beyond EVs to AI data centers and defense and switched to licensing. The risk: solid-state batteries have been "almost here" for 5+ years and remain at pilot scale. … Show more
Eos Energy Enterprises ranks ahead of QuantumScape because its real deal with Google lends it far more legitimacy than the last time the stock traded at this price. Many promising energy-tech companies have not proven their technology commercially at scale; a few will become large multibaggers while more will fail, so a Google deal is a meaningful catalyst. Whether management can execute, after a poor record, remains the key question. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Tempus AI may go lower near term because of valuation, leadership reputation and insider selling, despite an amazing business. With about 25% growth expected and profitability uncertain, it is not obviously cheap. Glassdoor reviews matter in medicine's high-trust setting, and ongoing insider sales echo founder patterns that ended badly. The data piece, about 5% of market cap, can earn a high multiple, so the stock looks reasonably priced if adoption continues. x.comÂ
QuantumScape is drawing heavy institutional buying, a bullish signal for the stock. x.comÂ
Tempus AI's selloff after it beat and raised guidance looks like a great deal, and a further drop would be a chance to buy more. x.comÂ