IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave are prime stage 4 short candidates: the market is weak, the group is weak, the stocks are weak and show relative weakness, and their value is essentially zero. x.com 

Quantinuum looks expensive against its sales at $48.73. It trades at 101x sales and 38x next year's, while software companies usually get 5x. Fair value is $36.21 to $46.09, about 5x next year's sales give or take 12%, with a pullback level at $40.40. This is a levels-only view based on reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

AI, networks and power give these 12 stocks some of the decade's biggest tailwinds. Micron is one of three big HBM makers; Samsara connects fleets; IonQ builds quantum computers; Ciena supplies optics; GE Vernova and Eaton serve power demand; Dell ships AI servers. Netflix, the largest paid streamer, adds ads; Coupang, Korea's largest e-commerce platform, delivers same-day; Airbnb, the largest short-term rental marketplace, adds services; Arm enters data centers; CrowdStrike secures enterprises. … Show more

Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion are too speculative to own because neither has a moat yet. Bernstein flags both as high risk-reward quantum plays, but its own note says it is far too early to declare a winner and that different modalities have distinct strengths, so a new architecture could make their hardware obsolete. Quantum is also highly capital-intensive: Rigetti's roughly $590 million in cash is a runway being burned, not operating profit. For a quality investor, both are a pass for now. … Show more

QuantumScape is a poor business, with heavy dilution and self-enriching executives, a clear sign that executive pay is the only way left to make money in a high-capex, low-margin battery business. x.com 

Most rivals cannot match these 12 stocks' moats. Micron is one of three HBM titans; Circle backs USDC; ASML alone makes EUV; Planet Labs has the largest Earth-imaging fleet. MongoDB is developers' choice; Affirm embeds at Amazon and Shopify; Eli Lilly leads GLP-1; SoFi spans loans, banking and investing. On gains via CloudTec; AST SpaceMobile builds phone satellites; Rigetti offers cloud quantum computing; Spotify, the largest music streamer, adds podcasts and audiobooks. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com  … Show more

IonQ, D-Wave and Rigetti look like traps after spiking on US government equity stakes. The $2B attached to nine quantum companies is roughly $100M each, a rounding error that doesn't change whether the businesses work. D-Wave's last quarter brought in $2.86M of revenue and Rigetti $4.4M, about 600x revenue. Much of the pop was a short squeeze, not revaluation, and the group later fell 7-9% on no news. Unlike Intel, which the government bought cheap, these are bought on a story. x.com 

IonQ, Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum have no business model, so their cash flows can't be predicted. They are awful companies whose appeal rests on speculation, and that should die out when the market turns. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Quantum computing stocks such as IonQ, Rigetti, Quantum Computing Inc, Arqit, SEALSQ, BTQ and HQ could catch a bid around Quantinuum's IPO. Quantinuum is raising about $1.46 billion at a roughly $14 billion valuation, the first traditional IPO of a full-stack quantum company, anchored by long-only demand. Big IPOs reprice whole sectors as allocators who missed the deal seek liquid exposure, as with Cerebras and SpaceX. The driver is positioning, not fundamentals, so these are very risky trades. … Show more

Ouster, Applied Optoelectronics, Ondas, AST SpaceMobile, IREN and Oklo are statistically more likely to lose money long term if bought today. Most unprofitable retail favorites end up with horrendous charts years later, and survivorship bias is far worse among them, as the 2021 vintage shows. Big winners often come from unglamorous names like Marathon Petroleum, up over 20x in six years. Applied Optoelectronics may work on real demand, but its CEO has failed for 30 years. Keep such bets small. … Show more