GrowthTurtle
Data Science PhD & IEEE Fellow, Ex-Two Sigma
Quantinuum looks expensive against its sales at $48.73. It trades at 101x sales and 38x next year's, while software companies usually get 5x. Fair value is $36.21 to $46.09, about 5x next year's sales give or take 12%, with a pullback level at $40.40. This is a levels-only view based on reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Quantinuum's roughly 1,000x price-to-sales multiple prices in a future that is still years away at best, even if the quantum technology is legitimate. x.comÂ
Quantinuum's valuation is a stretch after its IPO debut jump. More than $15 billion of market value rests on just $79 million in bookings, even as the quantum era approaches. x.comÂ
Quantinuum's market value relative to sales is not low, but against many poor-quality quantum names it made sense below $60. In this market, P/E and P/S valuations matter only so much: they drive stocks mainly in climates such as rate-hike cycles. Investors fixated on Nvidia being cheap at 21x earnings have missed moves in Marvell and Intel, while software multiples contracted despite claims of cheapness as the future grew less secure. x.comÂ
The Shortlist targets companies it tags as pump-and-dumps, industry bubbles, constrained-float cases, potential fraud or overleveraged. Its Oct. 23 realistic-value estimates imply large downside, including 79% for ReAlloy, 53% for Critical Metals, 60% for Infleqtion and 62% for Quantinuum. x.comÂ
Quantinuum's IPO adds yet another ridiculously valued company to the quantum sector rather than changing its dynamics. Comparing these companies on technology or business model is like counting angels on a pin. Even Infleqtion trades at 100x revenue and loses a dollar for every dollar of revenue it makes. x.comÂ
D-Wave Quantum's $5.2 billion valuation, or 325 times revenue, leaves substantial downside against just $1.50 per share in cash. The stock still has an estimated 80% downside. x.comÂ
D-Wave Quantum is hard to justify as a $7B company trading at 50x 2028 sales in a highly speculative industry, and its CFO is resigning. x.comÂ
IonQ is priced as a story, not a company: with annual revenue under $50 million, its valuation bets on the most optimistic version of quantum computing a decade from now. The market now rewards narrative over earnings and punishes a single missed quarter. That can last a long time when liquidity is ample and risk appetite high, as dot-com stocks in 1999 and SPACs in 2021 showed, so a drop is not imminent. Buyers chasing it are buying how long sentiment lasts, not company value. x.comÂ
D-Wave Quantum is pure science fiction with limited application space, and the market will eventually push it below $1. It carries a $6B market cap with no revenue, products or working technology. x.comÂ
Honeywell looks like GE 2.0, worth about $265 billion in parts against a $135 billion market cap, with its aerospace spinoff coming in June. The core business is worth about $156 billion at 6.5x its $24 billion of revenue, aerospace about $98 billion at 7x $14 billion, and its 55% Quantinuum stake about $11 billion if Quantinuum is worth around $20 billion. x.com x.com x.comÂ
