Quantinuum's valuation is a stretch after its IPO debut jump. More than $15 billion of market value rests on just $79 million in bookings, even as the quantum era approaches. x.com 

Quantinuum's roughly 1,000x price-to-sales multiple prices in a future that is still years away at best, even if the quantum technology is legitimate. x.com 

Quantinuum's market value relative to sales is not low, but against many poor-quality quantum names it made sense below $60. In this market, P/E and P/S valuations matter only so much: they drive stocks mainly in climates such as rate-hike cycles. Investors fixated on Nvidia being cheap at 21x earnings have missed moves in Marvell and Intel, while software multiples contracted despite claims of cheapness as the future grew less secure. x.com 

Quantinuum looks expensive against its sales at $48.73. It trades at 101x sales and 38x next year's, while software companies usually get 5x. Fair value is $36.21 to $46.09, about 5x next year's sales give or take 12%, with a pullback level at $40.40. This is a levels-only view based on reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.com 

IonQ is priced as a story, not a company: with annual revenue under $50 million, its valuation bets on the most optimistic version of quantum computing a decade from now. The market now rewards narrative over earnings and punishes a single missed quarter. That can last a long time when liquidity is ample and risk appetite high, as dot-com stocks in 1999 and SPACs in 2021 showed, so a drop is not imminent. Buyers chasing it are buying how long sentiment lasts, not company value. x.com 

Quantum computing is a race whose winners get pricing power over the hardest problems; Google's CEO says quantum is where AI was five years ago. IonQ leads with Q2 revenue of $80.1 million, up 287%. D-Wave alone is in commercial production; Rigetti grew revenue 173%. IBM targets fault tolerance in 2029, Alphabet's Willow began the cycle, Xanadu is photonic, Infleqtion has federal backing, Quantum Computing Inc. is speculative, Arqit sells post-quantum security; an ETF holds the field. x.com  … Show more

Quantum computing stocks such as IonQ, Rigetti, Quantum Computing Inc, Arqit, SEALSQ, BTQ and HQ could catch a bid around Quantinuum's IPO. Quantinuum is raising about $1.46 billion at a roughly $14 billion valuation, the first traditional IPO of a full-stack quantum company, anchored by long-only demand. Big IPOs reprice whole sectors as allocators who missed the deal seek liquid exposure, as with Cerebras and SpaceX. The driver is positioning, not fundamentals, so these are very risky trades. … Show more

Rigetti Computing and Infleqtion are too speculative to own because neither has a moat yet. Bernstein flags both as high risk-reward quantum plays, but its own note says it is far too early to declare a winner and that different modalities have distinct strengths, so a new architecture could make their hardware obsolete. Quantum is also highly capital-intensive: Rigetti's roughly $590 million in cash is a runway being burned, not operating profit. For a quality investor, both are a pass for now. … Show more

Trump's executive order for a US quantum computer at a national lab by 2028, with the post-quantum encryption deadline pulled to 2031, makes quantum a strategic industry funded like chips and nuclear. Rigetti, D-Wave and Infleqtion each got $100M with the government as shareholder. IonQ leads on revenue via direct defense contracts, with Q1 revenue up 755% to $64.7M. Quantum Computing Inc is a lottery ticket at ~635x sales; the Defiance ETF is a basket. Backing de-risks science, not valuations. … Show more

Quantum Computing Inc. is a fake quantum company: its revenue all comes from acquisitions, shows no real top-line acceleration and is not even quantum-related. The company used to be called Innovative Beverage Group Holdings. A $3 billion market cap on $3 million of acquired revenue makes the retail-driven rally a great opportunity to short again. x.com  x.com  x.com