Bluechip
Value Investor, Short Seller
D-Wave Quantum's $5.2 billion valuation, or 325 times revenue, leaves substantial downside against just $1.50 per share in cash. The stock still has an estimated 80% downside. x.comÂ
D-Wave Quantum is hard to justify as a $7B company trading at 50x 2028 sales in a highly speculative industry, and its CFO is resigning. x.comÂ
D-Wave Quantum will win the quantum race alongside Google, and its $7B market cap can balloon to $200B in the next few years. x.comÂ
IonQ, Rigetti and D-Wave are not worth owning except at basement-level valuations because quantum computing still does not solve commercially useful problems at scale. Government R&D money has flowed for over 30 years and is spread across the field; it is not an investment thesis, and AI-scale capital is nowhere close. Physics and engineering barriers remain and timelines keep shifting, possibly 5-15 years out, so the sector likely bleeds out more. Classical AI is the real revolution. x.com … Show more
IonQ, Rigetti Computing and D-Wave Quantum have no business model, so their cash flows can't be predicted. They are awful companies whose appeal rests on speculation, and that should die out when the market turns. x.com x.com x.comÂ
D-Wave Quantum is among nine quantum-computing companies set to receive Trump administration grants totaling $2 billion. IBM gets $1 billion and GlobalFoundries $375 million, with Rigetti, Infleqtion, Atom Computing, PsiQuantum and Quantinuum also listed. The approach is to buy D-Wave on dips with patience. x.com x.comÂ
Quantum Computing Inc. is a fake quantum company: its revenue all comes from acquisitions, shows no real top-line acceleration and is not even quantum-related. The company used to be called Innovative Beverage Group Holdings. A $3 billion market cap on $3 million of acquired revenue makes the retail-driven rally a great opportunity to short again. x.com x.com x.comÂ
IonQ, D-Wave and Rigetti look like traps after spiking on US government equity stakes. The $2B attached to nine quantum companies is roughly $100M each, a rounding error that doesn't change whether the businesses work. D-Wave's last quarter brought in $2.86M of revenue and Rigetti $4.4M, about 600x revenue. Much of the pop was a short squeeze, not revaluation, and the group later fell 7-9% on no news. Unlike Intel, which the government bought cheap, these are bought on a story. x.comÂ
Quantum computing is a race whose winners get pricing power over the hardest problems; Google's CEO says quantum is where AI was five years ago. IonQ leads with Q2 revenue of $80.1 million, up 287%. D-Wave alone is in commercial production; Rigetti grew revenue 173%. IBM targets fault tolerance in 2029, Alphabet's Willow began the cycle, Xanadu is photonic, Infleqtion has federal backing, Quantum Computing Inc. is speculative, Arqit sells post-quantum security; an ETF holds the field. x.com … Show more
These high-flying stocks look like they are running purely on hope, with valuations hard to justify. POET Technologies trades at 1,580x sales, D-Wave Quantum at 874x, Navitas Semiconductor at 169x and AXT at 96x, while Oklo carries an $11.4B market cap with no sales. x.comÂ