Who's going to carry the logs
Swing Trader
Molson Coors is a pretty good business priced far too cheaply at 8.5x 2027 earnings, with well-structured, well-termed debt. The stock is suppressed because it is a consensus funding short, and terminal-risk concerns should evaporate as the market eventually agrees, as long as management avoids bad M&A. x.comÂ
Boston Beer is probably the easiest short: its top line is shrinking by high single digits while it trades at 25 times earnings. x.comÂ
PepsiCo offers a share-price recovery bet as international growth continues and North American demand has room to improve. It owns Pepsi, Lay's, Doritos and Gatorade; Q2 revenue rose 6.4% to $24.2 billion, international beverages organic revenue grew 9%, and management still expects 5-7% core EPS growth in 2026. The recovery still has to happen, as North American beverage volume fell 4% last quarter. x.comÂ
Surging costs and tapped-out customers threaten Constellation Brands' beer business. Consumer companies loaded with debt and lacking pricing power are ones to avoid; Constellation Brands should drop below $100 before its next report. x.comÂ
Celsius is cheap against its cash earnings. It trades at 13x cash earnings and 11x next year's, while beverage companies usually get 18x. Fair value is $44.37 to $56.47, or 18x next year's cash earnings give or take 12%, and the stock sits 35% below the low end, with a pullback zone at $25.33. This is a valuation read on reported earnings and revenue estimates only, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Diageo is a beaten-down quality business early in a reset under new CEO Dave Lewis, who led Tesco's turnaround. Weak demand and inventory missteps left revenue flat near $20 billion as profit and EPS fell. The quick dividend cut shows priority on long-term health, alongside cost cuts, a portfolio review and a cash-flow focus; net debt near $22 billion must be addressed. The market prices in prolonged weakness, possible but not most likely given strong free cash flow and brands like Guinness. … Show more
PepsiCo is extreme value because its falling share price has lifted the dividend yield to 4.6% at just 15 times this year's earnings. Its dividend has risen for more than five decades. x.comÂ