KLA is the one semiconductor capital equipment maker that does not materially benefit as memory makers such as Micron ramp up capex. x.com
TBU
Semiconductor & AI Infrastructure Commentary
Micron is the more compelling memory maker on hybrid bonding because it is trying to win market share while Korean rivals rest on their laurels. x.com
Micron faces a severe crash risk from CXMT's current threat and apparent investor complacency after a euphoric high. If the Wall St Cheat Sheet fits, most of Micron's gains across 40 years, amassed in just one year, could be erased soon. Earlier, Elon Musk said Micron had been reasonable on future memory prices; memory stocks were not yet to be faded. x.com x.com
KLA gains as more complex AI chips require more inspection before they ship. 3D stacking, advanced packaging and 2nm processes multiply checks in a market KLA says it owns almost entirely. Revenue rose 29% and EPS 39%; the next-quarter revenue guide of $4.7bn exceeds the $4.54bn expected, showing the promised second-half acceleration. Overweight, $300 target. x.com x.com
Micron can still benefit from rising memory prices because 70% remains open to pricing. Those prices have been rocketing, countering LogicalThesis's claim that long-term agreements lock away the upside. x.com
A memory-industry shortage adds demand support to Micron's long-term case. With next-twelve-month revenue growth estimated at 91.4% and forward free cash flow cited at 122B, Micron is the best long-term investment right now on the numbers and demand, ahead of the Tesla and Nebius alternatives discussed. x.com
Micron's capex increase could make chip equipment makers KLA, Lam Research and Applied Materials huge winners from its report. All three rose after hours as Micron raised capex, and each sits in a defined channel about to break out. x.com x.com
Micron can't meet customer demand, giving it rare visibility at a valuation of about 5x next year's earnings. CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said customers are extending agreements into 2031, which gives certainty of demand and lets Micron plan capacity investments with confidence. The stock is now about $1,000, and with potential EPS beats over the next few quarters its forward P/E could be around 5, unthinkable about six months ago. x.com x.com
Micron's Q4 FY26 confirms the memory supercycle. Revenue reached $54.23B, up 379% YoY, beating its own guidance by 6% and consensus by $3B, and Q1 FY27 guidance of $61.5B adds another 13%. Core data center revenue rose 56% QoQ to $18.0B at a 90% gross margin, with every segment above 83%. Customers prepaid $12.7B to lock in supply. Micron generated $62B of FY26 free cash flow after $27.4B of capex and holds $73.5B of cash against $5.2B of debt. x.com
KLA looks cheap against its earnings: at 30x next year's earnings versus the roughly 38x chip-equipment makers usually get, it sits about 9% below the low end of a $224–$285 fair range. That range is 38x next year's $6.71 EPS, give or take 12%, and leans on the forecast, which is 83% above trailing earnings; on trailing earnings it trades at 56x. This is a valuation read only, with no fundamental work. x.com
Micron's latest quarter is strong enough that the stock should be up big. Cash rose from $30 billion to $73 billion in a single quarter, and guidance beat expectations by about $6 billion. x.com x.com