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AppLovin's ad yield engine has run out of gas, setting up the same structural decay that hit The Trade Desk as ad spend consolidates into walled gardens. Conversion rates stalling around 1.4%, delayed AI rollouts and mounting litigation point to a fundamental tailspin that Piper Sandler's cautious call understates. Being down 60% this year is not a bottom; buying here is catching a falling knife on a broken narrative. x.comÂ
AppLovin's slight revenue miss should drive momentum traders out of the 50% growth story; the stock fell 22%. Per @wallstengine, Q2 revenue was $1.92B against a $1.94B estimate, up 53%, adjusted EBITDA of $1.61B also missed, and free cash flow of $863.3M fell well short of the $1.29B estimate. x.comÂ
AppLovin looks cheap at current levels unless something catastrophic is happening beneath the surface. Per @stock_analysisx, its EPS rose from $0.09 to $13 in four years while the stock is down 60% from its high at 15x forward earnings. Still, reaching its above-30% annual growth target through Axon recommendation-engine improvements alone seems unlikely. x.com x.comÂ
AppLovin is in a dying, cutthroat business: mobile is not growing, and culturally people are tired of ads. x.com x.comÂ
AppLovin could drop toward $200 if the current move does not turn into a quick liquidity sweep and rally, because sector sentiment matters more than fundamentals in the short term, even though AppLovin is fundamentally a beast. x.comÂ
AppLovin looks cheap for its growth, at just 15 times forward earnings after 61% growth over the last twelve months. More marketers have lately mentioned AppLovin as a place they want to spend, though the stock is a controversial pick. x.comÂ
AppLovin's weekly downtrend continues from its $627 cycle top, alongside whale accumulation that has fallen to just 4.9%. Momentum bars around $213 and $251 are providing support for now. Momentum would only rebuild with closes above the two longest momentum bars: about $273, near-term resistance, and $321, mid-term resistance. x.comÂ
AppLovin is probably stuck for a while after falling more than 50% this year, partly penalized unfairly for The Trade Desk's fall as a fellow black-box ad-tech name. Too few holders understood the business on the way up, which makes the way down painful. It may become a good long in 2027, pending more work on valuation. x.comÂ
AppLovin looks like an attractive ad-tech opportunity around $280 because its advertising platform has opened to all businesses, offering access to over 1 billion daily users, and management expects Q3 revenue above $2B. Shares are down nearly 62% from $733 despite Q2 revenue growth of 53% year over year. x.comÂ
AppLovin has zero moat in AI advertising, where 50 companies do the same thing and AI can do it without any of them. It is value-trap garbage, just another The Trade Desk, and all of these companies could be bankrupt someday. x.com x.comÂ