AppLovin could drop toward $200 if the current move does not turn into a quick liquidity sweep and rally, because sector sentiment matters more than fundamentals in the short term, even though AppLovin is fundamentally a beast. x.comÂ
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AppLovin's weekly downtrend continues from its $627 cycle top, alongside whale accumulation that has fallen to just 4.9%. Momentum bars around $213 and $251 are providing support for now. Momentum would only rebuild with closes above the two longest momentum bars: about $273, near-term resistance, and $321, mid-term resistance. x.comÂ
AppLovin is $200 cheaper and insiders still don't want to buy it. x.comÂ
AppLovin is still a Moderate Buy, and for those with conviction in the thesis this is a good time to buy, though it will be a tough one to hold. Down 15% in a week, it could get stuck like Adobe for many quarters ahead. x.com x.comÂ
AppLovin's ad yield engine has run out of gas, setting up the same structural decay that hit The Trade Desk as ad spend consolidates into walled gardens. Conversion rates stalling around 1.4%, delayed AI rollouts and mounting litigation point to a fundamental tailspin that Piper Sandler's cautious call understates. Being down 60% this year is not a bottom; buying here is catching a falling knife on a broken narrative. x.comÂ
AppLovin needs a very clean quarter to rebuild confidence. Investors question how much market-share runway its gaming ad business has left and how sustainable its very high margins are, and last quarter's model-upgrade cadence issues raised new execution concerns. Gaming ads must remain the central growth engine, since e-commerce will not be big enough for a while. x.com x.comÂ
AppLovin looks cheap at current levels unless something catastrophic is happening beneath the surface. Per @stock_analysisx, its EPS rose from $0.09 to $13 in four years while the stock is down 60% from its high at 15x forward earnings. Still, reaching its above-30% annual growth target through Axon recommendation-engine improvements alone seems unlikely. x.com x.comÂ
AppLovin is probably stuck for a while after falling more than 50% this year, partly penalized unfairly for The Trade Desk's fall as a fellow black-box ad-tech name. Too few holders understood the business on the way up, which makes the way down painful. It may become a good long in 2027, pending more work on valuation. x.comÂ
AppLovin's slight revenue miss should drive momentum traders out of the 50% growth story; the stock fell 22%. Per @wallstengine, Q2 revenue was $1.92B against a $1.94B estimate, up 53%, adjusted EBITDA of $1.61B also missed, and free cash flow of $863.3M fell well short of the $1.29B estimate. x.comÂ
AppLovin looks tempting after a massive reset, with some of the strongest fundamentals on the market, in an elite club with Palantir and CrowdStrike. Its price is down 57% from the highs, back to 2024 levels, and its P/E has fallen from 70x to a record-low 24x. Growth has decelerated from priced-for-perfection levels, but it is still a money machine, software-disruption fears are cooling and the stock is consolidating in a long-term support zone. The bottom is likely close. x.com x.com x.comÂ
AppLovin faces a long repair after its trend broke, even though its fundamentals rank in the top 30 of 2,000 stocks. Shares fell almost 60% from above $745 to near $315 after an August report, with revenue up 53% and an 84% EBITDA margin, narrowly missed its guidance midpoint, cracking the endless-beat assumption behind its multiple. Price sits below a falling 200-day average, and holders waiting for break-even must clear first. If the trend turns, 16.8x earnings for 37% growth would be rare. … Show more