MKS looks undervalued at 13.5x estimated 2027 earnings, a multiple that is probably too low. x.com 

MKS Instruments looks cheap against its earnings at $260.82. The semiconductor and electronics manufacturing supplier trades at 15 times earnings, while the industry usually gets 18 times. Eighteen times next year's expected $17.65 a share implies fair value of $279.57–355.82, though that leans on forecasts sitting 167% above trailing earnings. x.com 

Low multiples give AI infrastructure good risk/reward as demand outruns supply and agentic workloads have runway. TSMC at 17x 2027E EPS appears to have all the accelerator and CPU demand it can handle this year and next; Ultra Clean is at 8x, MKS 12x, TTM 13x, Nvidia 14x and Celestica 15x. Kioxia at 3x and Samsung preferreds at 2.5x carry a big discount on pricing and cycle fears. Multiples imply a 2027 capex peak and meaningful drop; 2028 capex growth is expected, but below 2027's rate. x.com  … Show more

SCHMID Group's risk-reward does not yet compensate for its capital structure and competitive position, though its AI recovery is real. Up to 104 million diluted shares versus 65 million outstanding, plus €154 million net debt, put it above 60x EV/EBITDA. Ten customers make up 60% of revenue; MKS Instruments leads. It gets more defensible if orders convert as guided, convertibles shrink without new issuance, a tier-one substrate maker enters qualification and no new China export curbs hit. x.com  … Show more

US semiconductor equipment makers are the sturdiest picks-and-shovels play, because any industry expansion needs equipment first, giving them a place in every bull market. In the latest US tech selloff, chip and optical stocks fell broadly, yet equipment names jumped double digits at the open and nearly all closed higher, a clear vote by investors. The group spans Applied Materials, Lam, KLA, MKS, Entegris, Onto, Nova and ACM Research, with Axcelis, Ultra Clean and Veeco strongest. x.com 

Broadcom's diverse networking exposure makes it one of the best positioned in the theme. The market has overlooked it year to date. Optical DSPs, Tomahawk and Jericho underpin the view; Tomahawk 6/7 ramps in 2027, and Tomahawk Ultra and optical DSPs should accelerate growth. New XPU customers and extended hyperscaler deals add to earnings upside and an eventual re-rating. Risks remain, and weak semiconductor flows warrant caution about calling a bottom. x.com 

Applied Optoelectronics' share-sale overhang, which held it back all year, is now gone. Per @KawzInvests, it completed its $600M at-the-market offering, bringing 2026 ATM sales to about $1.7B while other optics names ran; the company is fully funded with nothing left to sell. The stock is still nearly 50% below its all-time high, setting up a run to new highs. x.com  x.com  x.com  x.com 

Credo is one of the cheapest AI growth stocks, trading around 26x forward earnings after a hard correction while revenue grew 115% to $479M and full-year growth is guided above 85%. Margin worries mostly reflect DustPhotonics amortization and stock comp; non-GAAP gross margin held near 68%. DustPhotonics adds a second engine in optics, with over $600M expected this year, and Credo's low-laser designs can ship through the laser shortage. One customer at about a third of revenue is the main risk. … Show more

Applied Optoelectronics' case now hinges on visible production progress. Its drop on OpenAI's revenue run-rate figures reflected an accounting question, not any change in laser or memory supply, per Carrio Research. If AAOI fails again next quarter and pushes its timelines out another quarter, it will be ugly. x.com 

Credo has the widest gap between fundamentals and share price among optics names, but also the worst chart, so it merits a staged, half-size entry rather than a full one. The optics selloff is macro, not fundamental: markets priced a 92-93% chance of a 25bp Fed hike, the 10-year yield hit 5.04%, the highest since 2007, and chip stocks fell 5% after Dario Amodei called for slowing frontier AI. Rate moves cut optical multiples before the rest of AI hardware, and they are still compressing. x.com