Jason Kam
Founder of Folius Ventures
SMIC should reach an all-time high soon because its gross profit could ramp quickly as foundry capacity everywhere else is sold out. It is one of four foundries able to ship 7nm chips and sits at the core of Huawei's ramp and China's strategic interests, so a levered tier-2 player should get a real utilization and pricing boost. It is not cheap, at 30x+ market cap to gross profit like TSMC, and its sanctions-list status limits offshore buyers. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Taiwan Semiconductor's above-average inflows and potential capitulation at the recent low add to its bullish setup. The stock has moved cleanly off the STL and out of the pink zone. x.comÂ
TSMC's strong AI demand is straining supply, while solid company fundamentals and attractive semiconductor valuations make an abrupt stop to its advance unlikely. TSMC's Wendell Huang expects 2026-28 capex to be significantly higher than in the previous three years to support customer growth; he says most capex is tied to long-term demand. x.comÂ
TSMC's capacity-constrained growth is holding margins through its costly 2nm ramp. Its Q4 revenue guide of $52.3-54.3B beats $49B consensus, implying 14% sequential growth, with 65-67% gross-margin guidance; planned Q4 capex is $19-23B versus $13.8B last quarter. World Trade Securities maintains Overweight and a $620 target. TSMC is also in talks to run Elon Musk's proposed Texas Terafab; additional fab and equipment demand depends on a deal. x.com x.comÂ
TSMC may lose pricing power as performance gains shift from shrinking transistors to stacking, interconnects and optics, while logic folding could make older processes competitive. Despite strong leading-edge demand, investors may overestimate the profit share its node leadership can retain. Its cautious expansion and past reluctance toward advanced packaging suggest a risk-averse culture that protects returns but could leave it late to disruptive technologies and key customers. x.comÂ
TSMC's AI growth still faces margin pressure from overseas fab expansion and a faster A14 ramp for mobile customers facing 2nm SoC challenges. 3Q gross margin of 66.4% missed expectations, and the 4Q guide is softer at 65-67%; margins are expected to remain largely flat through 2027-28 despite projected 39% revenue growth in 2027. Hold; target nudged to NT$2,999 at 20x 2027 earnings. x.com x.com x.comÂ
TSMC's latest results point to AI chip demand still running ahead of supply, supporting the semiconductor and equipment trade. Cantor says TSMC raised its 2026 revenue outlook again, guided December-quarter sales above consensus and held 65-67% gross-margin guidance through the N2 ramp; its bullish sector read names Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD, ASML, Applied Materials, Lam Research and KLA. Jensen Huang says AI labs need not reach trillions in revenue to justify the buildout. x.com x.comÂ
Low multiples give AI infrastructure good risk/reward as demand outruns supply and agentic workloads have runway. TSMC at 17x 2027E EPS appears to have all the accelerator and CPU demand it can handle this year and next; Ultra Clean is at 8x, MKS 12x, TTM 13x, Nvidia 14x and Celestica 15x. Kioxia at 3x and Samsung preferreds at 2.5x carry a big discount on pricing and cycle fears. Multiples imply a 2027 capex peak and meaningful drop; 2028 capex growth is expected, but below 2027's rate. x.com … Show more
Architecture changes could lift TSMC wafer demand. Shifting from 12-high to 8-high lifts volumes; an on-device AI phone upgrade cycle would be enormously bullish, while ASIC gains over Nvidia help because ASICs use more wafers. TSMC is arguably more vital to AI buildout than MAG stocks and a reasonable extended-AI-cycle play at a not-crazy multiple, barring big macro events. Margins may not expand as capex rises; a Terrafab partnership, if it happens, would somewhat ease Intel competition risk. … Show more
TSMC captures more value as advanced nodes and packaging expand revenue beyond wafer volumes. In Q3 2026, N2 rose from 3% to 8% of wafer revenue, HPC reached 68%, and revenue grew 50.9% in TWD versus 9.6% wafer-shipment growth. N2 ramping squeezed gross margin, yet TSMC generated nearly $15B in free cash flow after $13.8B of capex. TSMC expects 2026-28 capex significantly above the prior three years; Wendell Huang says revenue growth should outpace capex growth if they do their job right. x.com … Show more
UMC's planned price increases should lift it, and its small size next to TSMC could drive the stock higher faster. Taiwan's second-largest foundry plans selective hikes in late 2026 and broader, possibly larger ones in 2027, mostly on new orders and capacity, amid rumored TSMC 3nm hikes of up to 15% on AI and ASIC demand. Raw materials and pricier Singapore expansion are raising costs; its new Singapore fab targets mass production in 2027, while interposer capacity doubles to 6K wafers a month. … Show more
