Dr. Stoxx
Stock Trader & Author, Oxford DPhil, Trading Education
Caterpillar is cheap here, with plenty of free cash flow to keep funding capex for the next few years, a historic $64 billion backlog and newly raised targets. It has the best chart among key industrials, and the sector is seeing strong inflows this week. Jefferies set a $1,045 target this morning, and JPMorgan sees $1,165. x.comÂ
Caterpillar's strong fundamentals should eventually help its shares find support once investors agree on a new multiple. The stock is down 35% from its peak after a parabolic run; continued separation of gross profit from operating expenses would be welcome. x.comÂ
Caterpillar's dip below Wall Street's average price target is a rare opportunity after a massive second-quarter double beat. Adjusted EPS was $8.17 against a $5.71 estimate, and sales were $20.5 billion against $18.36 billion expected. x.comÂ
Caterpillar is expensive against its earnings at 25x next year's EPS, versus the 19x its industry usually gets. At 19x the $32.43 forecast EPS, give or take 12%, fair value is about $542-690, so at $811 the stock sits 18% above the top of that range. Forward EPS is 40% above trailing, so the view leans on forecasts, and it is a valuation-levels read rather than fundamental work. x.comÂ
Caterpillar is pivoting from heavy machinery into recurring software and autonomous technology on top of record fundamentals. Q1 2026 revenue rose 22% to $17.4 billion and adjusted EPS 30%, backlog is a record $63 billion, and construction revenue jumped 38%. The July Skycatch acquisition adds 3D drone mapping to its autonomous fleet, and it raised the dividend 8% after $5 billion of Q1 buybacks. Options gamma and moving-average support point to a breakout while those levels hold. x.comÂ
Michael Burry's short on Caterpillar looks mistaken given its $72B backlog, up 92% year over year. Per TrendSpider, Burry's biggest shorts now include Oracle, Palantir, Nebius, Nvidia, Micron, Caterpillar and CoreWeave. Shorting some of the purest AI plays in the biggest tech revolution in history to buy Adobe and Lululemon is astounding. x.comÂ
Caterpillar is priced like a turbo-charged Walmart, which is worse for a cyclical company. A quoted post notes it trades at 35x next-twelve-month earnings while EPS estimates are at a record high; its past three big buying opportunities came at about 30x at notable earnings troughs. x.comÂ
Caterpillar deserves a rerating because its earnings power now comes from data center power infrastructure, a secular driver, rather than the housing and mining cycles it has long been priced on. Power Systems grew 44% in Q4 as hyperscalers signed 2-gigawatt generator contracts for private grid capacity, the early stage of a multi-year procurement cycle no competitor can match on capacity or service network. Backlog hit $51 billion, up 71%. Rating is Overweight with an $860 December 2026 target. … Show more
Caterpillar is the company actually building the data centers, and its Q2 2026 results show it. Revenue rose 24% to $20.54B against a $19.3B estimate, adjusted EPS rose 73% to $8.17 versus $6.20 expected, and operating profit grew 50% to $4.3B. Power & Energy grew 17%, Construction Industries 35% and Resource Industries 20%. It is a stellar company and a good long-term retirement holding. x.comÂ
Caterpillar is an easy short because its price assumed revenue would double, and 24% growth is underwhelming by comparison. That stands even after the stock jumped premarket on what @brent_e_trader called a huge earnings beat and raise. x.comÂ
Caterpillar has a powerful tailwind from demand for power and energy, making it one of the best stocks to own right now. x.comÂ
