FestivusCap
Public Equities Commentary
agilon health still looks cheap if its enterprise value is really about $1.5 billion and it hits its projected numbers. Its recent rise looks driven more by EBITDA growth than revenue growth. x.comÂ
Oscar Health is valued at less than 1x trailing sales, a wild valuation for a business still growing at its pace. It generated $11 billion of revenue last year and trades at a market cap of roughly $9 billion. x.comÂ
Elevance Health looks primed for massive employee cost removal, and its health-insurer peers probably are too. x.comÂ
Clover Health's court win removes the biggest policy overhang on its profitability: on June 1, 2026, a federal court ordered CMS to recalculate Clover's 2026 Medicare Star Rating, which CMS algorithm changes had hurt, risking tens of millions in quality bonuses. Its Counterpart AI drives a flywheel of better predictions, fewer admissions, a lower benefit expense ratio and higher margins, as Q1 showed. At about 0.5x 2026 sales guidance versus 2-5x for peers, a re-rating looks inevitable. x.comÂ
UnitedHealth may be trading at a discount, with a price-to-sales ratio of 0.60x versus its 10-year average of 1.19x. x.comÂ
Elevance Health offers deeper value and better growth than UnitedHealth, Centene and similar insurers, trading at about half UnitedHealth's P/E. It is not a sexy trade. MarketSurge picked up a cup breakout with 28% depth, giving a target of 490-500. x.comÂ
Oscar Health could top $30 before the end of 2026 on margin expansion. It guides to $250-450M of operating earnings on $19B of 2026 revenue, 1.3-2.4% margins; insurers near 2.5% margins trade around 50% of revenue, implying about a $9.5B market cap at the high end versus $5.1B today. The long-term 5% margin target could support 1x revenue. CEO Mark Bertolini, one of the best CEOs now, buying 1M shares at $11.92 marked the bottom. x.com x.com x.comÂ
UnitedHealth's collapse was driven more by fear than fundamentals, making it one of the biggest opportunities in years, reminiscent of Meta in 2022. Fraud accusations led nowhere as the DOJ dropped its investigation, and peers Humana and CVS recovered from the same cost underestimation and beat later. With over $420B in revenue and deep ties to US employers, UnitedHealth is too big to fail and could survive even a fine. That same logic pointed to Berkshire being the undisclosed buyer. x.comÂ