Oscar Health is valued at less than 1x trailing sales, a wild valuation for a business still growing at its pace. It generated $11 billion of revenue last year and trades at a market cap of roughly $9 billion. x.comÂ
Sam Badawi
Stock Analyst, Creator of Origins of Alpha & Quarterly Conviction
Oscar Health looks cheap against its earnings. It trades at 25x trailing but 17x forward earnings, below the 20x health insurers usually get, putting fair value at $33.12-$42.15 on 20x next year's $1.88 EPS, give or take 12%. The view leans on forecasts, with forward earnings 45% above trailing. This is a levels-only read off reported earnings and revenue estimates, with no fundamental work. x.comÂ
Oscar Health's drop below $30 makes little sense after it crushed Q2, swung to a profit and raised full-year operating earnings guidance. Revenue was $4.90B versus $4.75B expected and EPS $1.10 versus $0.39, with FY26 revenue guided to $18.9B versus $18.6B estimated. The market needs time to digest the result, and the stock should recover soon; it remains a long-term hold. x.com x.com x.comÂ
Oscar Health cannot be a great business because insurance, like banking, is uninvestable when its economics are nearly impossible to predict. One bad cycle or change in costs can wipe out margins that are already nonexistent. A post the author replies to argues Oscar avoided the 30-40% member drop the market expected after enhanced premium tax credits expired. x.comÂ
Oscar Health has already priced in the CMS crackdown while it keeps disrupting medical insurance, with 90% average annual sales growth over the past five years. The stock is not far from testing new highs since its IPO, and the price target is 42+. x.comÂ
Oscar Health has turned from a cash-burning insurtech into a profitable market-share winner, yet the stock still trades near its post-IPO levels. It serves 3.2 million members, just posted its most profitable quarter ever and is taking share despite ACA regulatory headwinds, so it could compound significantly if execution continues. x.comÂ
Oscar Health looks too extended after its big move and should pull back around earnings in the next few days; it is not a tech stock with a niche product capable of parabolic moves. x.comÂ
Oscar Health is too cheap after guiding full-year results about 40% above street estimates, and should be trading above $20. Per @Pharmdca, Oscar expects $18.7B-$19B of 2026 revenue, up 61% on record membership and AI efficiencies, is on track to return to profitability, and CEO Mark Bertolini bought about $11.92M of shares. The stock should have risen 5-6% when it reiterated that guidance. x.com x.comÂ
Oscar Health's CEO bought $12 million of stock near the lows, an eight-figure insider buy worth paying attention to. Shares are now at 5.5-year highs and close to threatening the all-time high set at the IPO price. x.comÂ
Hyped growth stocks can be poor investments even when their businesses grow, because valuations already assume they will become exceptional. Retail buyers often arrive after the promise is widely recognized, before tougher competition separates lasting winners from the rest. Eight of the nine previously warned-about stocks have fallen, though Oscar Health has gained. x.comÂ
Oscar Health looks like a steal at a market cap of around $9 billion. It generated $4.6 billion in revenue last quarter with more than $600 million in net income. x.comÂ