Oscar Health's downside case looks too aggressively priced after it held support through the March-April capitulation and rebounded sharply. A strong Q1 brought higher revenue, a better medical loss ratio, significant adjusted EBITDA and reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and its tech-enabled ACA platform could deliver meaningful operating leverage. A sustained close above about $20, a multi-year ceiling, would open a path toward its IPO highs. ACA subsidy and eligibility changes remain a real risk. … Show more

Oscar Health has the most room to run among health insurers, which are rallying after the administration announced increased Medicaid budgets. CEO Mark Bertolini bought about $12 million of shares at the lows, the first insider purchase this year, and Oscar's market cap is just $3.74B. The chart confirms it: a broken daily descending trendline, surging money flow and a volume spike. Resistance sits at $14.15-$15, and a close above $15 brings the 200-day moving average into play. x.com 

Oscar Health is too hard to invest in given the state of the ACA, uncertainty over how much ICHRA can add and uncertain risk-adjustment liabilities. A full-year medical loss ratio below 80% would force rebates, though Oscar can still cut its expense ratio. Democrats winning at least partially in the midterms could bring more favorable terms for Oscar later. x.com 

Oscar Health is valued at less than 1x trailing sales, a wild valuation for a business still growing at its pace. It generated $11 billion of revenue last year and trades at a market cap of roughly $9 billion. x.com 

Oscar Health is shifting from story stock to genuine profitability as membership growth drives operating leverage. Its SG&A ratio fell from 15.8% to 15.2%, and CMS cut ACA exchange user fees, easing costs for an insurer reliant on that market. CEO Mark Bertolini bought 1 million shares for $11.92M in April, signaling confidence in a profitability inflection. ICHRA, where employers fund employees' own coverage, is a large untapped market, and its new Lucie shopping platform deepens its moat. … Show more

Oscar Health cannot be a great business because insurance, like banking, is uninvestable when its economics are nearly impossible to predict. One bad cycle or change in costs can wipe out margins that are already nonexistent. A post the author replies to argues Oscar avoided the 30-40% member drop the market expected after enhanced premium tax credits expired. x.com 

Oscar Health has already priced in the CMS crackdown while it keeps disrupting medical insurance, with 90% average annual sales growth over the past five years. The stock is not far from testing new highs since its IPO, and the price target is 42+. x.com 

Oscar Health's new long-term targets could mean another 2.5x-4x over the next two years. It now targets 20% revenue CAGR by 2029, 5-7% operating margin and $4 EPS. If that translates into a 2.5%-5% net margin, healthcare names at those margins generally get 0.5x-1x sales. The market finds the targets credible since Oscar is well ahead of the 2027 guidance it gave three years ago, and Barclays raised its price target to $49 from $39 with a Buy rating. x.com 

Oscar Health is essentially a leveraged bet on Affordable Care Act subsidies surviving, and the enhanced premium tax credits are sunsetting. A full lapse would mean roughly a 114% spike in subsidized premiums and enrollment cratering into 2027. Q2 was a monster print, with EPS of $1.10 versus $0.39 expected, but the real test comes next year. x.com 

Oscar Health's ACA expansion offers a huge growth opportunity if it controls medical costs. It is entering six South Carolina counties in 2027; management targets another 400-600 counties by 2029. Q2 MLR fell to 79.2% from 91.1%, SG&A to 14.2% from 18.7%, and operating income rose from a $230M loss to a $389M profit. Favorable reserve development helped, so those results may not be the new normal. If underlying economics keep improving, Oscar could look very different in a few years. x.com  x.com