Oscar Health's downside case looks too aggressively priced after it held support through the March-April capitulation and rebounded sharply. A strong Q1 brought higher revenue, a better medical loss ratio, significant adjusted EBITDA and reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and its tech-enabled ACA platform could deliver meaningful operating leverage. A sustained close above about $20, a multi-year ceiling, would open a path toward its IPO highs. ACA subsidy and eligibility changes remain a real risk. … Show more

Oscar Health's new long-term targets could mean another 2.5x-4x over the next two years. It now targets 20% revenue CAGR by 2029, 5-7% operating margin and $4 EPS. If that translates into a 2.5%-5% net margin, healthcare names at those margins generally get 0.5x-1x sales. The market finds the targets credible since Oscar is well ahead of the 2027 guidance it gave three years ago, and Barclays raised its price target to $49 from $39 with a Buy rating. x.com 

Oscar Health looks too extended after its big move and should pull back around earnings in the next few days; it is not a tech stock with a niche product capable of parabolic moves. x.com 

Oscar Health has the most room to run among health insurers, which are rallying after the administration announced increased Medicaid budgets. CEO Mark Bertolini bought about $12 million of shares at the lows, the first insider purchase this year, and Oscar's market cap is just $3.74B. The chart confirms it: a broken daily descending trendline, surging money flow and a volume spike. Resistance sits at $14.15-$15, and a close above $15 brings the 200-day moving average into play. x.com 

Oscar Health's guidance raise shows improving operating leverage, the key test of whether its ACA growth can become durable profit. It lifted 2026 earnings from operations guidance to $600M-$800M from $500M-$700M while leaving revenue guidance unchanged at $18.7B-$19.0B, and improved medical loss ratio guidance by 50 bps to 81.0%-82.0%. The implied operating margin rises from about 3.2% to 3.7% without more revenue. ACA risk adjustment and medical-cost trends still need watching. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health is essentially a leveraged bet on Affordable Care Act subsidies surviving, and the enhanced premium tax credits are sunsetting. A full lapse would mean roughly a 114% spike in subsidized premiums and enrollment cratering into 2027. Q2 was a monster print, with EPS of $1.10 versus $0.39 expected, but the real test comes next year. x.com 

Oscar Health is too cheap after guiding full-year results about 40% above street estimates, and should be trading above $20. Per @Pharmdca, Oscar expects $18.7B-$19B of 2026 revenue, up 61% on record membership and AI efficiencies, is on track to return to profitability, and CEO Mark Bertolini bought about $11.92M of shares. The stock should have risen 5-6% when it reiterated that guidance. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health has turned the corner and is on the verge of a dramatic profitability inflection, yet trades at under 15x free cash flow. It projects $800 million in earnings from operations, a 1,000-basis-point improvement in its medical loss ratio and over $350 million of free cash flow this year, with more than $4.5 billion of net cash. The stock is headed to $30 by the end of 2026, after a painful year in which the call did not deliver. x.com 

Oscar Health is too hard to invest in given the state of the ACA, uncertainty over how much ICHRA can add and uncertain risk-adjustment liabilities. A full-year medical loss ratio below 80% would force rebates, though Oscar can still cut its expense ratio. Democrats winning at least partially in the midterms could bring more favorable terms for Oscar later. x.com 

Oscar Health is valued at less than 1x trailing sales, a wild valuation for a business still growing at its pace. It generated $11 billion of revenue last year and trades at a market cap of roughly $9 billion. x.com