Oscar Health's ACA expansion offers a huge growth opportunity if it controls medical costs. It is entering six South Carolina counties in 2027; management targets another 400-600 counties by 2029. Q2 MLR fell to 79.2% from 91.1%, SG&A to 14.2% from 18.7%, and operating income rose from a $230M loss to a $389M profit. Favorable reserve development helped, so those results may not be the new normal. If underlying economics keep improving, Oscar could look very different in a few years. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health could top $30 before the end of 2026 on margin expansion. It guides to $250-450M of operating earnings on $19B of 2026 revenue, 1.3-2.4% margins; insurers near 2.5% margins trade around 50% of revenue, implying about a $9.5B market cap at the high end versus $5.1B today. The long-term 5% margin target could support 1x revenue. CEO Mark Bertolini, one of the best CEOs now, buying 1M shares at $11.92 marked the bottom. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health's raised 2026 guidance changes nothing fundamentally, so its 18%+ premarket jump is unlikely to hold. Operating earnings guidance rose to $500-700M from $250-450M, but Oscar had already booked $704M in Q1 alone, more than the new top end, with Q3 and Q4 seasonally bringing losses. 2027 could be challenging as management targets a 5% margin, and the stock looks fairly valued around $34. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health is set for a strong second half of 2026 and 2027 after management raised guidance by a massive amount and brought down its medical loss ratio, improving margins. On a $12 billion revenue guide, 2% margins at 25x earnings imply a $6 billion-plus market cap, and 5% margins in 2027 would mean $15 billion-plus, over 120% higher. An ACA subsidy extension looks unlikely but would be an unpriced tailwind. x.com 

Oscar Health has turned the corner and is on the verge of a dramatic profitability inflection, yet trades at under 15x free cash flow. It projects $800 million in earnings from operations, a 1,000-basis-point improvement in its medical loss ratio and over $350 million of free cash flow this year, with more than $4.5 billion of net cash. The stock is headed to $30 by the end of 2026, after a painful year in which the call did not deliver. x.com 

Oscar Health is too hard to invest in given the state of the ACA, uncertainty over how much ICHRA can add and uncertain risk-adjustment liabilities. A full-year medical loss ratio below 80% would force rebates, though Oscar can still cut its expense ratio. Democrats winning at least partially in the midterms could bring more favorable terms for Oscar later. x.com 

Oscar Health's scale is finally producing real operating leverage as its medical loss ratio improves, undercutting the view that it is uninvestable. Q1 revenue rose 53% to $4.65 billion, operating earnings 137% to $704 million, net income 147% to $679 million and basic EPS 107% to $2.28. x.com 

Oscar Health's downside case looks too aggressively priced after it held support through the March-April capitulation and rebounded sharply. A strong Q1 brought higher revenue, a better medical loss ratio, significant adjusted EBITDA and reaffirmed 2026 guidance, and its tech-enabled ACA platform could deliver meaningful operating leverage. A sustained close above about $20, a multi-year ceiling, would open a path toward its IPO highs. ACA subsidy and eligibility changes remain a real risk. … Show more

Oscar Health cannot be a great business because insurance, like banking, is uninvestable when its economics are nearly impossible to predict. One bad cycle or change in costs can wipe out margins that are already nonexistent. A post the author replies to argues Oscar avoided the 30-40% member drop the market expected after enhanced premium tax credits expired. x.com 

Oscar Health has already priced in the CMS crackdown while it keeps disrupting medical insurance, with 90% average annual sales growth over the past five years. The stock is not far from testing new highs since its IPO, and the price target is 42+. x.com