Oscar Health could top $30 before the end of 2026 on margin expansion. It guides to $250-450M of operating earnings on $19B of 2026 revenue, 1.3-2.4% margins; insurers near 2.5% margins trade around 50% of revenue, implying about a $9.5B market cap at the high end versus $5.1B today. The long-term 5% margin target could support 1x revenue. CEO Mark Bertolini, one of the best CEOs now, buying 1M shares at $11.92 marked the bottom. x.com  x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health's guidance raise shows improving operating leverage, the key test of whether its ACA growth can become durable profit. It lifted 2026 earnings from operations guidance to $600M-$800M from $500M-$700M while leaving revenue guidance unchanged at $18.7B-$19.0B, and improved medical loss ratio guidance by 50 bps to 81.0%-82.0%. The implied operating margin rises from about 3.2% to 3.7% without more revenue. ACA risk adjustment and medical-cost trends still need watching. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health cannot be a great business because insurance, like banking, is uninvestable when its economics are nearly impossible to predict. One bad cycle or change in costs can wipe out margins that are already nonexistent. A post the author replies to argues Oscar avoided the 30-40% member drop the market expected after enhanced premium tax credits expired. x.com 

Oscar Health's free cash flow growth should keep driving its shares, since share prices follow free cash flow. Q2 free cash flow rose 320% to $2.1 billion from $500 million a year earlier, while the stock rose 85% over that time. x.com 

Oscar Health's scale is finally producing real operating leverage as its medical loss ratio improves, undercutting the view that it is uninvestable. Q1 revenue rose 53% to $4.65 billion, operating earnings 137% to $704 million, net income 147% to $679 million and basic EPS 107% to $2.28. x.com 

Oscar Health's raised 2026 guidance changes nothing fundamentally, so its 18%+ premarket jump is unlikely to hold. Operating earnings guidance rose to $500-700M from $250-450M, but Oscar had already booked $704M in Q1 alone, more than the new top end, with Q3 and Q4 seasonally bringing losses. 2027 could be challenging as management targets a 5% margin, and the stock looks fairly valued around $34. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health's new long-term targets could mean another 2.5x-4x over the next two years. It now targets 20% revenue CAGR by 2029, 5-7% operating margin and $4 EPS. If that translates into a 2.5%-5% net margin, healthcare names at those margins generally get 0.5x-1x sales. The market finds the targets credible since Oscar is well ahead of the 2027 guidance it gave three years ago, and Barclays raised its price target to $49 from $39 with a Buy rating. x.com 

Oscar Health's ACA expansion offers a huge growth opportunity if it controls medical costs. It is entering six South Carolina counties in 2027; management targets another 400-600 counties by 2029. Q2 MLR fell to 79.2% from 91.1%, SG&A to 14.2% from 18.7%, and operating income rose from a $230M loss to a $389M profit. Favorable reserve development helped, so those results may not be the new normal. If underlying economics keep improving, Oscar could look very different in a few years. x.com  x.com 

Oscar Health looks too extended after its big move and should pull back around earnings in the next few days; it is not a tech stock with a niche product capable of parabolic moves. x.com 

Oscar Health has already priced in the CMS crackdown while it keeps disrupting medical insurance, with 90% average annual sales growth over the past five years. The stock is not far from testing new highs since its IPO, and the price target is 42+. x.com